000
FXUS65 KPSR 231032
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
332 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower activity will continue to dwindle through the morning
hours. In the wake of the storm, below normal temperatures are
expected Sunday along with isolated showers across the higher
terrain north and east of Phoenix. A return to near normal
temperatures is likely early next week, followed by a warming
trend later in the week as high pressure builds across the
intermountain West.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest objective analysis shows the center of an upper low positioned
just to our north with a trough axis slicing through western Maricopa
County. This system will continue eastward through the day and
eventually exiting Arizona later today.

Showers have persisted through 330AM (MST) with radar trends
remaining active for a few more hours over east of Phoenix. Even
though fast flow aloft has kept most showers from producing
locally high rainfall rates, 0.50-0.75" of rain has fallen over
an area stretching from Roosevelt Lake south towards Florence. A
flood threat may continue for some areas, including Tonto Creek
and the Superstition Mountains, as runoff continues to flow.

Showers activity will decrease through morning with most of the
lower desert remaining dry. Latest guidance keeps central Arizona
temperatures below seasonal normals today in the mid 60s while
areas farther west will reach the mid and upper 70s. Ensemble
guidance continues to show strong ridging over the western US this
week allowing daytime highs to reach the upper 70s/low 80s over
much of the forecast area by the end of the week.

&&

AVIATION...Updated at 0555Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Some lingering effects of the upper and trailing portions of
storm system will continue to effect the TAF sites through mid to
late Sunday morning. Showers in the vicinity will mostly taper off
before sunrise. Although isolated showers remain possible between
sunrise and late morning the probabilities and confidence were
too low to include mention of them in the TAFs after 11Z. There is
also a slight chance of patchy fog early this morning but the
confidence was also too low to include mention in the TAFs. Expect
variable low cloud BKN CIGs and SCT decks from 5-8kft through
late morning to early to mid afternoon on Sunday. Winds near 5-10k
will favor the southwest to southeast before favoring the east
for several hours beginning around 11Z. However, confidence on
wind directions is currently fairly low due to the lingering
showers that are forecast to move through the area.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Lingering showers in the vicinity of KBLH will taper off very early
in the period. Moderate winds at KIPL around 8-13kt at KIPL will
be from the west and northwest during the period. Winds at KBLH
will be light and variable until midday when they will favor the
north and become a bit breezy with gusts near 17kt. FEW-SCT-BKN
mid level clouds should prevail through early to late Sunday
afternoon before becoming clear to mostly clear.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Conditions will be dry for the week with minimum humidities
falling into the 10-25% range for most of the week. Overnight RH
recoveries will also be meager. Wind directions will generally
follow local diurnal/terrain influences. Breezy conditions are
possible each afternoon with the strongest winds, 20-25 mph,
occurring Wednesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for CAZ562.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Deems
AVIATION...Sawtelle
FIRE WEATHER...Deems

NWS PSR Office Area Forecast Discussion