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Comfort Index: Danger Heat
 Updated10-Jul-2020 10:30pm @ 
 
Time of Next Full Update: 10:35 pm -  Station Elev: 1469 ft  
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PEPPERRIDGE NORTH VALLEY'S
7 DAY DETAIL FORECAST FOR NORTH PHOENIX, AZ.


National Weather Service Forecast for: 8 Miles NNE Phoenix AZ
Issued by: National Weather Service Phoenix, AZ
Updated: 1:30 pm MST Jul 10, 2020

North Phoenix Arizona
 
Tonight

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 85. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm  after midnight.
Mostly Clear
Saturday

Saturday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 114. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Hot
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 86. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm  after midnight.
Partly Cloudy
Sunday

Sunday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 115. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Hot
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 87. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm  after midnight.
Mostly Clear
Monday

Monday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 111. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Hot
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 85. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light west  after midnight.
Mostly Clear
Tuesday

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 109. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the morning.
Sunny
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 83. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm  after midnight.
Mostly Clear

Lo 85 °F

Hi 114 °F

Lo 86 °F

Hi 115 °F

Lo 87 °F

Hi 111 °F

Lo 85 °F

Hi 109 °F

Lo 83 °F


Excessive Heat Warning
 

Tonight
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 85. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Saturday
 
Sunny and hot, with a high near 114. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 86. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Sunday
 
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 115. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 87. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Monday
 
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 111. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 85. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light west after midnight.
Tuesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 109. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the morning.
Tuesday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 83. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Wednesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 108. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 82. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday
 
Sunny, with a high near 108. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 82. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Friday
 
Sunny, with a high near 107. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 8 Miles NNE Phoenix AZ.




Phoenix, Az - Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for PSR NWS Office
000
FXUS65 KPSR 102341 AAA
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
440 PM MST Fri Jul 10 2020

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.


.SYNOPSIS...
Abnormally strong high pressure building over the area into early
next week will result in excessive heat with lower elevation high
temperatures rising into the 115 to 120 degree range. Stable
conditions will keep thunderstorm coverage limited and favoring
the high terrain east of Phoenix. Extreme temperatures should
subside early next week, but temperatures likely will remain above
normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dewpoints rose this morning in the wake of an outflow boundary
that developed from an MCS in northern Sonora overnight. This
moisture surge caused an increase in mid and upper level moisture
causing PWATs to rise to 1.40" in this mornings sounding.
According to the SPC sounding climatology page, a PWAT of 1.40" in
the 12Z Phoenix sounding falls right between 90 percent and the
max moving average. Despite good moisture, a steep and unfavorable
inversion can be observed around 500 mb. This is due to very warm
temperatures in the mid-levels from strengthening high pressure
aloft. These stable conditions will limit thunderstorm coverage,
however, the HREF is showing isolated activity is possible in the
eastern portions of southern Gila county this afternoon and early
evening. There is also indication that light showers/virga could
develop early tomorrow morning along an outflow generated from
another northern Sonora MCS. With another moisture surge expected
tonight, there will definitely be plenty of moisture tomorrow
afternoon for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. HREF is
indicating a little more coverage tomorrow, with most of the
activity in southern Gila county. However, the potential is there
for activity to get into the far eastern portions of Maricopa and
Pinal counties. Gusty erratic winds and lightning will be the two
biggest impacts. QPF should be minimal.

The big story will be the heat through early next week. Models
remain consistent indicating mid-tropospheric heights peaking
tomorrow across Arizona. However, 850 mb temps won`t plateau until
Sunday, which will likely be the hotter day. Nevertheless,
forecast high of 115 deg in Phoenix Saturday will result in
widespread high heat risk.

NBM and ECMWF ensembles are still exhibiting some variability
with regard to temperatures, which is likely a reflection of the
uncertainty in overall moisture since humidities will be
sufficient for isolated thunderstorms each afternoon.
Consequently, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly how high the
temperatures will get, particularly due to occasional debris
clouds disrupting the diurnal cycle.

The aforementioned anticyclone will begin drifting eastward early
next week. This will result in a more pronounced southwesterly
flow and somewhat of a cooling trend, though temperatures will
likely remain above normal for the foreseeable future. The EPS and
GEFS also don`t highlight any particular day as being more
favorable for convection. However, it is conceivable that isolated
activity could develop early in the week and this is reflected in
the NBM single-digit PoPs. ECMWF ensemble PWAT anomalies
generally drop below average beginning next Wednesday, which will
essentially negate any chance of organized shower and thunderstorm
activity.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2340Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No major aviation concerns expected through the TAF period. Breezy
westerly at the current time to continue into the early evening
hours, with a few gusts into the teens at times. Lighter westerly
winds to continue well into the night before a brief switch to
easterly occurs during the early morning hours on Sat. Some of the
high-resolution models due indicate an outflow boundary could make
its way northward from decaying TS over SE AZ, but even the most
aggressive model output washes the boundary out before it gets into
the greater PHX area. Westerly winds will then return on Sat
afternoon. FEW-SCT decks aoa 15 kft and SCT-BKN clouds around 25 kft
will be possible throughout the TAF period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation concerns anticipated through the next 24 hours.
Winds at KIPL to veer toward the west this evening, then become
southeasterly overnight and on Sat. At KBLH, winds will favor a
southerly component through the period. Winds may become light and
variable at times mainly during the overnight hours. Otherwise, FEW-
SCT mid and high clouds aoa 15 kft will be possible throughout the
next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday through Friday:
Dry conditions and well-above normal temperatures can be expected
Monday with lower deserts seeing highs in the 115-120 degree
range. Some cooling can be expected during the Tues-Fri period.
Daytime minimum humidity values will be around 5-15% for most
places while overnight recoveries will rise into the 20-40% range.
Wind speeds will be light most days, outside of typical afternoon
breezes up to 20-25 mph, with directions following local terrain
influences. Moisture will fluctuate some, but the atmosphere will
likely remain too stable for thunderstorm coverage to be anything
but limited.

&&

.CLIMATE...

        Record Daily Maximum Temperatures

Date   Phoenix AZ  |   Yuma AZ   |  El Centro CA
----  -----------      -------      ------------
7/10  115 in 1958  | 118 in 1959 |  116 in 2012
7/11  118 in 1958  | 118 in 1958 |  117 in 1975
7/12  115 in 2009  | 119 in 1939 |  118 in 1964
7/13  114 in 2005  | 115 in 1983 |  118 in 1939

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ537-540>544-
     546-548>551-560.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 8 PM MST Monday
     for AZZ530>536-538-539-545-547-552>559-561>563.

CA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Monday
     for CAZ560>570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Feldkircher/Hirsch
AVIATION...Percha/Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Feldkircher
CLIMATE...MO

NWS PSR Office Area Forecast Discussion






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 Pepper Ridge North Valley Random Weather Facts

RAINFALL
In Arizona, typically, the heaviest rain falls during the summer thunderstorm season, or Monsoon, in our state. The rain can accumulate very quickly, resulting in flooded streets or washes, and can even cause deaths via flash flooding. In Phoenix, the greatest rainfall in a 24 hour period was 4.98 inches on July 1-2, 1911. This total is quite a bit less than the Arizona record of 11.4 inches, which fell on Workman Creek (near Globe) on September 4-5, 1970.

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