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 Updated20-Feb-2018 2:45am @ 
 
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PEPPERRIDGE NORTH VALLEY'S
7 DAY DETAIL FORECAST FOR NORTH PHOENIX, AZ.


National Weather Service Forecast for: 8 Miles NNE Phoenix AZ
Issued by: National Weather Service Phoenix, AZ
Updated: 9:33 pm MST Feb 19, 2018

North Phoenix Arizona
 
Overnight

Overnight: Mostly clear, with a low around 39. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Mostly Clear
Tuesday

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 55. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Sunny
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Clear, with a low around 35. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph after midnight.
Clear
Wednesday

Wednesday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 58. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Increasing
Clouds
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the evening.
Mostly Cloudy
Thursday

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 60. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Sunny
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Partly Cloudy
Friday

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Slight Chance
Showers
Friday
Night
Friday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers after 11pm.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Slight Chance
Showers
Lo 39 °F Hi 55 °F Lo 35 °F Hi 58 °F Lo 41 °F Hi 60 °F Lo 42 °F Hi 61 °F Lo 41 °F

 

Overnight
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 39. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Tuesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 55. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
 
Clear, with a low around 35. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph after midnight.
Wednesday
 
Increasing clouds, with a high near 58. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday
 
Sunny, with a high near 60. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
 
A 10 percent chance of showers after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Saturday
 
Sunny, with a high near 65. East wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 42. South southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Sunday
 
Sunny, with a high near 67. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 45. South southwest wind around 5 mph becoming east northeast after midnight.
Monday
 
Sunny, with a high near 69. East wind around 5 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 8 Miles NNE Phoenix AZ.




Phoenix, Az - Area Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for PSR NWS Office
000
FXUS65 KPSR 200415
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
915 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2018


.UPDATE...
Updated Discussion and Aviation sections.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Unusually cool temperatures will prevail over the area Tuesday and
Wednesday as a storm system exits the region. Winds will weaken
during the evening and overnight hours as light precipitation
exits Arizona toward morning. Colder than normal conditions will
continue into the weekend before finally warming back to near
average early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The leading edge of the frontal zone lies across eastern Gila
County as of this writing. The back edge of the associated cloud
band is over eastern portions of metro Phoenix. At the lower
levels, dry advection is already underway with surface dew points
in the single digits over much of our forecast area. Even under
the cloud band the dew points are in the teens and 20s. Given how
weak the echoes are and the dry subcloud air, anticipate no
measurable precip on lower elevations but will hold onto PoPs for
the rest of the evening over the higher terrain where there is
orographic lift and the air isn`t as dry. Only lingering slight
chances in far eastern portions of the CWA overnight. Otherwise,
with the main trough axis over the Mohave desert and some
associated PVA, there may be some minor cloud redevelopment later
tonight but no precip.

Winds over the forecast area have weakened quite a bit from this
afternoon. Only remaining Wind Advisory is over the higher terrain
east of Phoenix and that will be allowed to expire at 9 pm.
Overnight lows will be much cooler than they were this morning
with a lot of lower desert locations dipping into the 30s Tuesday
morning including Phoenix suburbs. But lingering mixing will keep
Min temps from bottoming out quite as much as they could. Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning still looks to be the coldest of the week.
High temps Tuesday may be the coolest of the season.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Issued 210 pm MST/110 pm PST...
A pronounced PV anomaly was driving down the Sierra chain and
centered over southern Nevada this afternoon. An impressive 100kt
H5 jet was rounding the basal portion of the trough axis
translating the greatest height falls (10-18dm), cold advection
aloft, and vorticity advection into northern Arizona. While veered
boundary layer winds were scouring moisture from the forecast
area into eastern Arizona and the best frontogentical forcing
aligned along the northern AZ CAA axis, favorable orographic flow
continued north of Phoenix such that scattered low topped
convective showers repeatedly have developed over ridge tops.

A steep low level frontal boundary can be seen in multiple satellite
channels nearly bisecting the CWA this afternoon; and this front
will continue to rapidly surge through the area, clearing into SE
Arizona by this evening. Deep subsidence and incredibly dry air
(single digit dewpoints) with veering winds will overspread the
area, quickly cutting off available moisture and better orographic
trajectories. In addition given the orientation of the overall
trough axis and additional shortwave energy filling into the trough
base this evening, the post frontal pressure gradient will weaken
rather abruptly late this afternoon; and other than enhanced winds
across ridge tops near the jet core, surface wind speeds will
subside at lower elevations after sunset. However in the meantime,
gusty winds will pick up some dust in the pre-frontal zone though
recent rainfall may hold down a more expansive dust problem.

Colder and much drier air will have fully flooded our area Tuesday,
and 850 mb temperatures only around 1-2 C will translate into highs
only in the mid-50s! This is despite the fact skies will be crystal
clear under late February sun. Believe it or not, this could match
or exceed the coldest day so far this winter (which was 57 degrees
on December 21st). Temperatures will plummet Tuesday night after
sunset under clear skies and light winds. Based on historical trends
following strong cold fronts, have hedged the forecast towards raw
guidance resulting in widespread 30s by Wednesday morning in the
lower deserts. In fact, the coldest lower elevation locations will
likely drop into the upper 20s during this period.

The general long wave trough is forecast to stick around through at
least Friday. However, the warm February sun will undoubtedly modify
this airmass on both Wednesday and Thursday bringing a bit of
warming each day. Yet another shortwave will rotate through this
trough come Friday, which looks to be relatively cold in nature, but
will not be packing much in the way of moisture. PWs are forecast to
be around 0.5 inches at best, but strong PVA forcing may accompany
this trough if indeed it comes to fruition. Really, the main impact
would be some breezy conditions along with some light snowfall above
4000 ft. However, there are still model disagreements with the ECMWF
& GEFS offering a much drier solution than the GFS.

Quasi-zonal flow develops for the weekend and possibly into early
next week bringing tranquil weather. This pattern would allow
temperatures to gradually rise back to near normal while winds stay
relatively light.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

A cold front has pushed into the east-central Arizona mountains.
The back edge of the associated cloud band will clear metro
Phoenix by 05Z. Mountain obscuration over Gila County and far NE
Maricopa County will improve from west to east overnight. Some
scattered mid clouds will linger overnight before clear skies take
hold Tuesday. Anticipate lingering west and northwest surface
winds overnight dipping below 10 kts by 07Z. Winds above the
surface will slowly weaken tonight (most noticeably within the
lowest 5kft) but will generally hold a west component overnight
and through the day Tuesday. Anticipate lofted dust to continue
slowly dissipating.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

West and northwest winds will linger overnight and dip below 10
kts by 07Z (stronger over Imperial County). Isolated to scattered
clouds AOA FL090 (locally BKN over higher terrain) will dissipate
by 12Z. Winds in the lowest 10 kft will favor northwest and
north directions overnight and through the day Tuesday. Anticipate
lofted dust to continue slowly dissipating.


Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday:
A series of low pressure systems will move through the Desert
Southwest through the weekend. This will help to reinforce the
below normal temperatures across the region, while there will only
be a slight chance of precipitation with the system Friday and
Friday night. Below normal RHs are also expected particularly
Wednesday, though winds will remain below critical thresholds
through the period. A warming trend is likely by Sunday, though
temperature will remain below average.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.

CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook, Twitter, and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/Wilson
AVIATION..AJ
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch

NWS PSR Office Area Forecast Discussion






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METAR
An Acroymn for METeorological Aerodrome Report. The reports are primarly collected by equipment such as Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS). It is the primary weather observation code used in the United States to satisfy requirements for reporting surface meteorological data. Minimum reporting requirements includes wind, visibility, runway visual range, present weather, sky condition, temperature, dew point, and altimeter setting.

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