665
FXHW60 PHFO 090614
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
814 PM HST Mon Jun 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades will gradually weaken to moderate speeds by the
latter half of the week. Periodic showers will filter in on the
trade wind flow, mainly focusing over windward and mauka areas
through midweek. By late this week, the background flow may
become light enough to support land and sea breeze development,
and showers may increase in some leeward areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Isolated to scattered showers were occurring this evening, mainly
over windward and mauka areas. A few showers have gotten over the
terrain to leeward areas, but not many. We expect trade winds to
continue through the night, bringing additional showers and
moderate wind speeds. No update is needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM HST Mon Jun 8 2026

Visible satellite and radar show a band of showery low clouds
moving east to west across Hawaii with the breezy trade winds.
Showers have been anchoring over windward slopes of Kauai and Oahu,
and Maui County to lesser extent. Expect another 12-24 hours of
the passing showers across windward sides of the smaller islands
before Hawaii sees the end of this band.

A 1028 mb high is centered far north northeast of Hawaii drifting
slowly northeastward. Soundings show an inversion over the state
around 7000 feet with precipitable water around 1.2 inches. The
stable conditions will limit rainfall amounts with most occurring
windward due to terrain effects, and occurring during the
nighttime and early morning hours.

An approaching cold front will begin to influence the wind flow
over the islands as early as Wednesday. Winds will weaken to
moderate on Wednesday, then gentle by late Thursday into the
weekend as the front moves closer and the subtropical high drifts
away to the northeast. This in turn will allow for a hybrid
pattern of weak trade winds combined with sea and land breezes
Thursday and Friday, with all land/sea breezes Saturday. Daytime
sea breezes will result in interior clouds and showers, while
nighttime land breezes clear out the cloud cover across the
islands. Models show the front stalling and dissipating well
northwest of Hawaii Sunday, with trades expected to strengthen
again early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure north of the islands will continue to sustain
moderate to breezy trade winds through tomorrow night. Showers
will focus over windward and mountain areas, occasionally making
it to leeward areas. Showers coverage will generally be higher
during the night time and morning hours. MVFR conditions are
expected within showers, while VFR prevails elsewhere.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscurations for N
through SE sections of Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai. These conditions
are intermittent, and could continue for most of the night.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for mechanical turbulence downwind of
the mountains due to breezy trade winds, and this is expected to
continue until midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM HST Mon Jun 8 2026

Trade winds will gradually ease through Friday. Currently, fresh
to locally strong trade winds are being driven by a 1027 mb high
centered far northeast of Hawaii with an associated ridge
stretching west about 600 nm north of Kauai. The high will be
pushed eastward over the next several days, and its associated
ridge will be displaced southward, resulting in the slow decrease
in local trades. Based on the latest guidance, the Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) for the typically windy waters around Big Island
and Maui has been extended into Tuesday afternoon. By late
Tuesday, trades should be down into the moderate to locally fresh
range, and the SCA will likely be dropped. Trades will fall to
gentle to moderate strength by Friday and may hold into the
weekend.

A series of southern hemisphere swells will continue through the
week with the largest due to arrive this weekend. Currently, a
building long-period south swell is overlapping a fading medium-
period swell. The bulk of the new swell energy was aimed east of
Hawaii, which still leaves some uncertainty in resulting surf
heights through Tuesday. Nearshore PacIOOS buoys are measuring a
combined swell above 2 feet across a broad spectrum of periods,
and long-period energy has been slowly rising this afternoon,
which is consistent with trends observed at offshore NOAA buoy
51002. Expect south shore surf to build to around seasonal
average tonight and Tuesday, and then decline Wednesday, followed
by a smaller pulse of south-southwest swell Thursday and Friday.

A much larger south-southwest swell will arrive Saturday night
and Sunday. A storm just southeast of New Zealand is producing a
fetch of seas in excess of 40 feet aimed at Hawaii, and there is
growing confidence that south shore surf will well exceed High
Surf Advisory levels during the peak Sunday into early next week,
with High Surf Warning conditions possible. This swell will
coincide with the peak monthly tides and will likely lead to
significant wave runup and impacts to coastal infrastructure.

Small west-northwest is possible over the next few days, while
rough east shore surf slowly declines below seasonal average. Surf
along east facing shores will decline further later this week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...Parker
DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...Tsamous
MARINE...Wroe

NWS HFO Office Area Forecast Discussion