Updated:
24-Sep-2022 11:35am @
|
 |
The station is located Lat: 33° 39´ 11´´ N | |||||||||
| Time of Next Full Update: 11:40 am - Station Elev: 1469 ft | ||
Weather Links: |
|
 New Feature |
Celebrating
|
Member of the:
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
For more information |
|
 |
|
Return to Top |
|
Welcome to Pepperridge North Valley's
|
Tropical Systems and Sea Surface Temperature Map
|
|||
Current US Satellite Loop
|
|
Select Basin: |
Select Satellite Type: |
Images to Show: |
Space Science & Engineering Center 12 Hour Satellite Loop
Eastern Pacific Area InfraRed Terrain Map
The above images were produced by the University of Wisconsin Space Science and Engineering Center
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies.
Animation by HAniS ©2014-2022 by Tom Whittaker -- Script by SE Lincoln Weather
Tropical Activity - Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 241707 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 24 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Newton, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Tropical
Tropical Storm Newton
-
Tropical Storm Newton Public Advisory Number 12
-
Tropical Storm Newton Forecast Advisory Number 12
-
Tropical Storm Newton Forecast Discussion Number 12
-
Tropical Storm Newton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
-
Tropical Storm Newton Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 14:50:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 15:47:33 GMT
Tropical Activity - Atlantic Basin
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 241751 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona, currently in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, on Tropical Storm Gaston, located near the western Azores, on Tropical Storm Ian, located over the central Caribbean Sea, and on Tropical Storm Hermine, located over the far eastern Atlantic. Central Tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Despite unfavorable upper-level winds, some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days while it drifts northwestward or northward over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona (AT2/AL072022)
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA... As of 2:00 PM AST Sat Sep 24 the center of Fiona was located near 47.7, -61.4 with movement N at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Public Advisory Number 41A
Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Sep 24 2022 000 WTNT32 KNHC 241744 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 41A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 200 PM AST Sat Sep 24 2022 ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...47.7N 61.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Labrador and discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for all of Nova Scotia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Isle-de-la-Madeleine * Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland * Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland * Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona was located near latitude 47.7 North, longitude 61.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h), and a slower northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will move across the Gulf of St. Lawrence through this evening, and then move across Labrador and over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 405 miles (650 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 948 mb (28.00 inches). Several observing sites in Atlantic Canada are recording gale- and storm-force winds. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the hurricane warning area in Canada. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in Canada. RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following additional rainfall: Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), resulting in storm total rainfall maxima of up to 10 inches (200 mm). Flooding is expected, some of which could be significant. Labrador and eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm). Eastern New Brunswick: 1 inch (25 mm) with locally higher amounts. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting Atlantic Canada, the northeastern United States coast, and Bermuda. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Forecast Advisory Number 41
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 000 WTNT22 KNHC 241432 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NOVA SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO BRULE * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * ISLE-DE-LA-MADELEINE * NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO FRANCOIS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. ANDREWS NEW BRUNSWICK TO WEST OF HUBBARDS NOVA SCOTIA * WEST OF BRULE NOVA SCOTIA TO CAP MADELEINE QUEBEC * ANTICOSTI ISLAND * SHELDRAKE QUEBEC TO NORTH OF PARSON'S POND NEWFOUNDLAND * BOAT HARBOR TO HARE BAY NEWFOUNDLAND * FRANCOIS TO ST LAWRENCE NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BOAT HARBOR NEWFOUNDLAND TO WEST BAY LABRADOR A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.9N 61.3W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. 34 KT.......270NE 350SE 350SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 960SE 780SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.9N 61.3W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.2N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 50.0N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 54.1N 59.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 58.1N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 61.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 63.3N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 65.3N 56.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.9N 61.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Forecast Discussion Number 41
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022 000 WTNT42 KNHC 241435 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022 Fiona continues to produce hurricane-force winds, heavy rains, storm surge, and rough marine conditions across Atlantic Canada and the surrounding waters. Surface observations suggest that the minimum pressure has been rising, and is now estimated to be about 945 mb, which is still extraordinarily low. The maximum winds of the storm are decreasing and are estimated to be near 70 kt. Fiona is now an occluded low, and it has slowed down. The initial motion is estimated to be northward at 22 kt. A slower northward motion is forecast during the next few days, taking the center of the system across the Gulf of St. Lawrence through tonight, across Labrador early Sunday, and into the Labrador Sea by Sunday night. The NHC track forecast is just a touch to the west of the previous one. Winds are expected to fall below hurricane strength later today, but the cyclone is still forecast to be a potent low for the next day or so while it continues to affect Atlantic Canada. NHC will continue to issue forecasts for Fiona until gale-force winds end along the Atlantic Canada coastline. Key Messages: 1. Fiona is forecast to continue to affect portions of Atlantic Canada during the next day or so, and significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of Atlantic Canada. 2. Heavy rains from Fiona are expected to continue to impact portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland today, persisting across eastern Quebec and Labrador into Sunday. This rainfall is expected to produce flooding, some of which could be significant. 3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the coast of the northeast United States, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 47.9N 61.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 25/0000Z 50.0N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 25/1200Z 54.1N 59.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/0000Z 58.1N 58.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/1200Z 61.0N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 27/0000Z 63.3N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/1200Z 65.3N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
000
FONT12 KNHC 241434
PWSAT2
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 47.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ILE ST PIERRE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURGEO NFLD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURGEO NFLD 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PTX BASQUES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PTX BASQUES 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PTX BASQUES 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
EDDY POINT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
EDDY POINT NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SYDNEY NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SYDNEY NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MONCTON NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MONCTON NB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ST JOHN NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
EASTPORT ME 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 17:45:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 15:23:20 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Gaston (AT3/AL082022)
...GASTON TURNS WESTWARD... As of 6:00 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 the center of Gaston was located near 38.0, -31.0 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Gaston Public Advisory Number 17A
Issued at 600 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022 000 WTNT33 KNHC 241755 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022 600 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022 ...GASTON TURNS WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 600 PM GMT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.0N 31.0W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Flores and Corvo in the western Azores * Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM GMT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 31.0 West. Gaston is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn to the southwest is forecast by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later this evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the western Azores for the next several hours. See products issued by the meteorological service in the Azores for more information. SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of the Azores through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts of 3 inches across the western and central Azores. This will result in storm total rainfall of 2 to 6 inches which may result in landslides and areas of flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Gaston Forecast Advisory Number 17
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 000 WTNT23 KNHC 241455 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES * FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL AZORES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 30.8W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 120SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 30.8W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 30.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 38.2N 32.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.4N 35.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 38.2N 37.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 37.5N 39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 36.7N 40.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 35.6N 43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 33.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 30.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Storm Gaston Forecast Discussion Number 17
Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022 000 WTNT43 KNHC 241455 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022 Gaston has lost most of its deep convection and it is currently an exposed low-level circulation. The closest relatively deep convective activity is south of Pico Island over 100 miles away from the center and likely terrain-induced. Though a recent scatterometer pass missed the center of Gaston, it did show an area of tropical-storm-force winds of around 35 kt to the east of the center. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt, slightly higher than the satellite intensity estimates. Hostile environmental conditions have weakened Gaston considerably. The strong vertical wind shear and dry mid-level humidities are not expected to improve for the remainder of the forecast period, and additional weakening is likely. The official forecast is similar to the previous prediction and still shows Gaston becoming fully post-tropical within 12 hours. A couple of the global models, however, indicate a mid-latitude shortwave trough/baroclinic zone interacting with post-tropical Gaston early Sunday morning could develop isolated deep convection, but this should be a short-lived event. The storm is moving west-southwestward at an estimated 245/8 kt. A building mid-level ridge to the north is expected to steer Gaston to the west through Monday morning, and to the west-southwest until it dissipates near the end of the week. The NHC forecast track is shifted slightly south of the previous advisory track, likely due to the southern shift of the initial position. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions over the western and central Azores today should diminish today as Gaston moves away from the islands. 2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western and central Azores through Saturday. This rainfall may result in landslides and areas of flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 38.0N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 38.2N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 25/1200Z 38.4N 35.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 26/0000Z 38.2N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 26/1200Z 37.5N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z 36.7N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z 35.6N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z 33.0N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Gaston Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
000
FONT13 KNHC 241455
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Storm Gaston Update Statement
Issued at 605 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022 000 WTNT63 KNHC 241805 TCUAT3 Tropical Storm Gaston Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082022 605 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE CENTRAL AZORES... The Azores Meteorological Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the islands of Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central Azores. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Gaston Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 18:07:06 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 15:29:34 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Ian (AT4/AL092022)
...IAN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 the center of Ian was located near 14.2, -75.8 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Ian Public Advisory Number 6A
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 606 WTNT34 KNHC 241752 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 ...IAN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 75.8W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning for Grand Cayman, and has changed the Hurricane Watch to a Tropical Storm Watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in western and central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 75.8 West. Ian is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then approach western Cuba late Monday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Ian is expected to become a hurricane late Sunday or Sunday night and could be at or near major hurricane strength late Monday when it approaches western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica by Sunday, and on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by Sunday night. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall: Southern Haiti and southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 14 inches Florida Keys and south Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with local maxima up to 5 inches through Tuesday morning These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across Florida cannot be ruled out through next week given already saturated antecedent conditions. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in areas of onshore winds on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Sunday and spread westward to Cuba by Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Advisory Number 6
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 000 WTNT24 KNHC 241453 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 75.2W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 75.2W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.5N 76.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.5N 78.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.0N 80.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 82.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.7N 83.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 83.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.6N 82.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 75.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241454 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022 Ian still has an asymmetric appearance in satellite imagery this morning, with most of the deep convection located over the western portion of the circulation. Tail Doppler radar and dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the cyclone is still vertically tilted, with the low- to mid-level center displaced to the south of the surface center. This structure is likely a product of the northerly shear that has affected the cyclone since genesis. The aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 43 kt and SFMR retrievals slightly above 35 kt, which supports keeping the initial intensity at 40 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is a bit south of due west at 260/13 kt. A generally westward motion is expected through tonight as the cyclone is steered by a narrow ridge to its north. Ian is forecast to turn northwestward on Sunday and north-northwestward on Monday as it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea around the periphery of the ridge. The NHC track forecast during this period has been adjusted slightly south and west of the previous one, in line with the track consensus aids. Beyond 72 h, there is still a large amount of cross-track spread in the guidance as Ian emerges into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches Florida. Hopefully, data collected from special radiosonde releases beginning later today and a scheduled NOAA G-IV flight will help resolve the steering flow around Ian and deep-layer trough that is forecast to be over the eastern U.S. early next week. The guidance envelope has once again shifted westward this cycle, and the official NHC track forecast has been adjusted in this direction as well, though it still lies slightly to the east of the TVCA and HCCA aids. Further adjustments to the track forecast may be needed given the increased uncertainty in the day 3-5 period. Ian is moving into a lower shear environment over very warm waters, and it should not take long for the system to shed its tilted structure and develop an inner core. Once that occurs, significant to rapid intensification is expected while Ian crosses the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The intensity guidance unanimously supports strengthening during the next several days, and the SHIPS-RII probabilities indicate a 67 percent chance of a 65-kt intensity increase in 72 h. Therefore, the NHC track forecast has been raised from the previous one, showing Ian becoming a hurricane by late Sunday and approaching western Cuba at or near major hurricane strength by Monday night. Limited land interaction is expected as the cyclone quickly passes over western Cuba, and Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday as it approaches the west coast of Florida. Key Messages: 1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid next week. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica on Sunday. 3. Ian is forecast to move near or over western Cuba and approach the west coast of the Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane strength early next week, where there is increasing confidence in multiple life-threatening hazards: storm surge, hurricane-force winds and rainfall flooding. While it is too soon to determine the exact magnitude and location of these hazards, residents in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.4N 75.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 14.5N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 15.5N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 17.0N 80.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 18.8N 82.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 20.7N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 22.7N 84.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 26.0N 83.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 28.6N 82.9W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
000
FONT14 KNHC 241454
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 23(32)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 24(34)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 28(42)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 23(36)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 28(46)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 23(41)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 20(41)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 20(42)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 17(38)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 12(35)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 10(35)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 10(29)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 8(28)
HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 20(43) 5(48)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 21(55) 5(60)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 4(24)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11)
NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 35(50) 13(63)
NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 8(27)
NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 16(49)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 40(50) 18(68)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 16(38)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 25(65)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 20(34)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 30(59)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 21(31)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 22(41)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 23(51)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 4(21) 1(22)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN ANDRES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 55(63) 8(71) 1(72)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 8(43) 1(44)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 5(25) 1(26)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 51(59) 10(69) 2(71)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 7(31) 1(32)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 53(77) 3(80) X(80)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 2(47) X(47)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 3(25) X(25)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 4(25) 1(26)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 51(74) 7(81) X(81) X(81)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 8(45) X(45) X(45)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 5( 5) 11(16) 3(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21)
KINGSTON 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Ian Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 17:53:22 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 15:35:31 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Hermine (AT5/AL102022)
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... As of 2:00 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 the center of Hermine was located near 20.8, -20.8 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Hermine Public Advisory Number 5
Issued at 200 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022 000 WTNT35 KNHC 241435 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022 200 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022 ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 20.8W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM NNE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 20.8 West. Hermine is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. After that time, a turn toward the northwest is expected. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Hermine is expected to become a remnant low in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce 3 to 6 (75 to 150 mm) inches of rainfall with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches (250 mm) across the Canary Islands through this weekend. This rainfall may cause some flash flooding in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Hermine Forecast Advisory Number 5
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 000 WTNT25 KNHC 241435 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102022 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 20.8W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 20.8W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 20.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.1N 20.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.6N 20.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.5N 20.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.0N 20.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.4N 21.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 20.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Hermine Forecast Discussion Number 5
Issued at 200 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022 000 WTNT45 KNHC 241436 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022 200 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022 Hermine is a strongly sheared and weak tropical cyclone. Satellite images indicate that the low-level center is exposed well to the south-southwest of the main area of deep convection. A recent ASCAT-B pass caught the eastern half of the storm and showed peak winds of about 30 kt well northeast of the center. Based on this data and the Dvorak estimates, Hermine is being held at a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory, but that could be a little generous. Regardless, the main impact is heavy rain that continues across the Canary Islands. The storm is moving northward at 7 kt and that motion is expected to continue during the next day or two while Hermine moves in the flow on the west side of a subtropical ridge. After that time, a turn toward the left is expected as the shallow system is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. Hermine is currently experiencing about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. Since the shear is expected to increase while Hermine moves into a region of cooler SSTs and drier air, weakening is forecast. Hermine is now predicted to become a remnant low in 36 hours, but given recent trends and the expected environment, the transition to a post-tropical cyclone could occur sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 20.8N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 22.1N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 23.6N 20.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 24.5N 20.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 25.0N 20.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z 25.4N 21.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Hermine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
000
FONT15 KNHC 241435
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Hermine Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 14:45:08 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 15:41:34 GMT
Member of the:
|
|
Page layout last updated on Dec 17th, 2009
Copyright © 2005 - 2022, Pepper Ridge North Valley Weather - All rights reserved .
Unauthorized duplication or distribution is prohibited
Powered By: |
Weather Display vers: 10.37S build: 134 &
WeatherLink 5.71 |
Site Template Designed by: Pali Plumies Designs
Disclaimer:
Never base important decisions on this or any weather information obtained from the Internet.
Number of Visitors Since March 15, 2005