Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110125
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Fay, located inland over eastern New Jersey.. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five 
days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header
WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories 
on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and 
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062020)

...FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
 As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 10
 the center of Fay was located near 41.0, -74.2
 with movement N at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 110231
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
 
...FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 74.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...30 KM NW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued south and west of East
Rockaway, New York.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East Rockaway New York to Watch Hill Rhode Island
including most of Long Island and Long Island Sound
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 74.2 West.  Fay is 
moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A northward to 
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected 
tonight and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Fay will move across portions of southeastern New York tonight, 
then across western New England into southeastern Canada on 
Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is expected as Fay moves 
farther inland, and the system is expected to become a post-
tropical low on Saturday and dissipate on Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
over water to the southeast of the center.  
 
The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is 
1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the
web at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
 
RAINFALL:  Fay is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with
isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its track from eastern
Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey across southeast New York, and 
portions of New England.  This rain may result in flash flooding and 
urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest 
amounts occur.  Widespread river flooding is not expected at this 
time; however, rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor 
flooding is possible.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning 
area for the next several hours.
 
STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 110231
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062020
0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH AND WEST OF EAST
ROCKAWAY...NEW YORK.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST ROCKAWAY NEW YORK TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND
INCLUDING MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  74.2W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 180SE   0SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  74.2W AT 11/0300Z...INLAND
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N  74.3W...INLAND
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 43.6N  73.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 47.5N  71.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 51.1N  68.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N  74.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 110234
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
 
Satellite and radar data indicate that Fay is no longer generating 
organized deep convection as the center moves into northern New 
Jersey.  A combination of radar, aircraft, buoy, and ship data show 
that 30-35 kt winds are occurring over the water south of central 
and western long Island, and based on this the initial intensity is 
reduced to 35 kt.  The central pressure of 1001 mb is based on 
surface observations.

Barring the return of convection, Fay should continue to weaken and 
become post-tropical on Saturday.  After that, the system is 
expected to dissipate on Sunday as it merges with a frontal system 
over southeastern Canada.  The new intensity forecast has only 
minor tweaks from the previous forecast.

The initial motion is now northward or 005 degrees at 15 kt.  The 
track forecast philosophy is unchanged, as Fay will be steered 
generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation 
between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an 
approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes.  The 
storm is moving a little to the left of the previous forecast, so 
the new forecast is nudged to the left due mainly to the initial 
position and motion.  The new forecast lies close to the consensus 
models.
 
Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the
center of Fay, as the heaviest rain and strongest winds are now 
occurring well away from the center.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall from eastern Pennsylvania, northeast New Jersey 
and across southeast New York, into portions of New England may 
result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor 
drainage.  Isolated minor flooding is possible; however, widespread 
river flooding is not expected.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected for several more hours 
over portions of coastal New York and Connecticut, including most 
of Long Island.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 41.0N  74.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  11/1200Z 43.6N  73.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  12/0000Z 47.5N  71.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/1200Z 51.1N  68.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020                                              

000
FONT11 KNHC 110234
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062020               
0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
AUGUSTA ME     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CONCORD NH     34 16   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
WORCESTER MA   34 21   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 35   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
BOSTON MA      34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
HARTFORD CT    34 42   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34 28   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
ALBANY NY      34 19   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34 33   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34 16   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
ISLIP NY       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 25   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 12   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  9   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 02:35:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 03:24:54 GMT

Local Statement for Philadelphia, PA

Issued at  1113 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Local Statement for New York City, NY

Issued at  1114 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020