Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290552
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Windward Islands:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea to the 
north of Venezuela.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of 
Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
This system is forecast to move slowly westward or west- 
southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next day or 
two. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could become a 
short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves 
inland tonight or Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain 
will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. 
For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see 
products issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is 
producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.  This system 
is forecast to interact with another tropical wave over the next 
couple of days, and some gradual development is possible later this 
week.  The overall system is forecast to be near the Windward 
islands by the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at about 
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (AT2/AL022022)

...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR ISLA MARGARITA...
 As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Jun 29
 the center of Two was located near 11.1, -64.1
 with movement WNW at 26 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory Number 6A

Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Jun 29 2022  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 290553
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
200 AM AST Wed Jun 29 2022
 
...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR ISLA MARGARITA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 64.1W
ABOUT 330 MI...525 KM ESE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the 
northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this 
system.  Interests in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and along the 
Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor 
the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.1 North, longitude 64.1 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h).  A westward or west- 
northwestward motion is expected through Thursday.  On the forecast 
track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea and the 
northern coast of Venezuela today, near the northeast coast of 
Colombia on Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on 
Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while
the disturbance remains over water.
 
Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance
remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.  Maurice Bishop International Airport on Grenada 
recently reported a wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela
today and from the ABC Islands to portions of northwest Venezuela 
tonight.  The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:
 
Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches. 

Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago, and northeast Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.

Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwest Venezuela: 3 to 5 inches.

These rainfall amounts could cause localized flash flooding.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands for a few more hours, over Islas
Margarita and the adjacent islands through this morning, and over 
the ABC Islands by this evening.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela
during the next few hours, and in the watch area along the 
northwestern coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of 
Colombia by tonight and early Thursday.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 29 2022  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 290247
TCMAT2
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
0300 UTC WED JUN 29 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA
WESTWARD TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER INCLUDING THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA.
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
BORDER WESTWARD TO SANTA MARTA.
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* ISLAS DE MARGARITA...COCHE AND CUBAGUA
* BONAIRE
* CURACAO
* ARUBA
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA WESTWARD TO 
THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA.
* COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER WESTWARD TO 
SANTA MARTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES TO CUMANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N  62.8W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  23 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N  62.8W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N  61.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.3N  65.5W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 11.8N  69.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.3N  72.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.3N  76.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.2N  80.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  30SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.0N  82.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 12.0N  87.9W...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 13.5N  93.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N  62.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 290248
TCDAT2
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022
 
Satellite imagery suggests that the disturbance is slowly getting
better organized, with gradually increasing convective banding in
the northern semicircle.  However, surface observations from
Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada indicate that the system has not yet
developed a closed circulation.  Therefore, it still has the status 
of a potential tropical cyclone.  The initial intensity remains 35 
kt based on the various surface observations.

The disturbance is forecast to be in an environment of low shear and 
warm sea surface temperatures if it remains offshore, and this 
should lead the system to become a tropical cyclone in 12-24 hr.  
Strengthening is likely to be slow until the system moves away from 
the coast of South America after 36 h, at which time a faster 
development appears likely.  The new intensity forecast is similar 
to the previous forecast and calls for the system to reach hurricane 
strength over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the 72 h point.  
Later in the forecast period, the global models still suggest that 
the cyclone's low-level circulation will remain intact after 
crossing Central America and this is also shown by the NHC forecast.

The system is moving a little faster with the initial motion now a 
somewhat uncertain  285/23 kt.  A general westward motion near or 
just north of the coast of South America with some decrease in 
forward speed is expected during the next day or two due to the 
presence of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north.  A south of west 
motion may occur for a time while the system is over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea. The new forecast track is similar to the 
previous track is lies close to the various consensus models.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the 
Windward Islands and parts of northern Venezuela tonight through 
late Wednesday night. Localized flash flooding will be possible.
 
2.  Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands for a few more hours, over Islas
Margarita Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday
evening.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Wednesday.
 
3.  There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's
forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea
late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts
with land from tonight through Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 10.9N  62.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/1200Z 11.3N  65.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  30/0000Z 11.8N  69.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  30/1200Z 12.3N  72.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 12.3N  76.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 12.2N  80.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 12.0N  82.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 12.0N  87.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
120H  04/0000Z 13.5N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 29 2022                                              

592 
FONT12 KNHC 290248
PWSAT2
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022               
0300 UTC WED JUN 29 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)   X(15)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  15(28)   1(29)
BLUEFIELDS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
BLUEFIELDS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  41(41)   3(44)   X(44)
SAN ANDRES     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   2(14)   X(14)
SAN ANDRES     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
LIMON          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)
LIMON          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLON          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   1( 1)  26(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
CURACAO        34  X  28(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
JUANGRIEGO     34 15   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Jun 2022 05:54:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Jun 2022 03:23:42 GMT