Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270506
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Lala, located several hundred miles north of Kure Atoll. The 
National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle, located about 1000 miles west of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Central East Pacific (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of 
organization in association with a low pressure system located about 
800 miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions are expected to support continued 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to 
form later today or tonight. The system is forecast to move 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific (EP94):
An area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian 
Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next two or 
three days while the system drifts to the northeast, before turning 
westward this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend well to the 
south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear 
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves westward 
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well south of the Hawaiian 
Islands over the weekend or early next week. Some gradual 
development is possible thereafter while the system moves slowly 
west-northwestward, well south-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle (EP4/EP092026)

...ISELLE HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON THE SYSTEM... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 the center of Iselle was located near 23.0, -125.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle Public Advisory Number 15

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2026 000
WTPZ34 KNHC 270232
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2026
 
...ISELLE HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON THE SYSTEM...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 125.9W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle
was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 125.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few 
days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Iselle has become a Post-Tropical Cyclone and is expected to 
continue to weaken until it dissipates in a couple of days or less. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Iselle will continue to affect the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula for a couple more days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane 
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low 
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and 
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Hagen/Papin

Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 15

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2026 958 
WTPZ24 KNHC 270232
TCMEP4
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092026
0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2026
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 125.9W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
4 M SEAS....180NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 125.9W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 125.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 23.6N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.3N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.8N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.3N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 125.9W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW 
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

 
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/HAGEN/PAPIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 15

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2026 000
WTPZ44 KNHC 270233
TCDEP4
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Iselle continues to have no deep convective organization this 
evening with the low-level center still fully exposed due to dry air 
and moderate wind shear. With the lack of convection occuring, 
Iselle is now considered to have become a Post-Tropical Cyclone. The 
most recent TAFB Dvorak fix has 1.5/25 kt and the objective 
satellite intensity estimates are in the range of 25-43 kt. Based on 
that data, the current NHC initial intensity has been set to 30 kt.

Iselle should continue to move west-northwestward over the next 
couple of days, steered by a mid-level ridge to the north of the 
cyclone. Increasing wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and 
a drier air mass will continue to weaken the system. The 
post-tropical remnant low is expected to gradually spin down 
and open into a trough in about 2 to 3 days. However, it still 
remains possible that the cyclone could spin down even sooner. Very 
minor adjustments were made to the previous NHC track and intensity 
forecasts.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 23.0N 125.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  27/1200Z 23.6N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  28/0000Z 24.3N 128.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/1200Z 24.8N 130.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0000Z 25.3N 131.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Hagen/Papin

Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2026 000
FOPZ14 KNHC 270232
PWSEP4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092026               
0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
25N 130W       34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KATZ/HAGEN/PAPIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2026 03:26:41 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270506
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Satellite imagery indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated 
with an area of low pressure, located several hundred miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, have become better 
organized tonight. If the current trends continue, advisories could 
be initiated on a short-lived tropical depression or storm later 
today. However, environmental conditions are expected to become 
hostile beginning on Friday, likely ending its chances for 
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Adams

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 27 Aug 2026 05:39:09 GMT