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 Updated24-Sep-2022 11:35am @ 
 
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Tropical Activity - Eastern Pacific



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Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241707
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Newton, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. 

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Tropical


Tropical Storm Newton

 

Tropical Activity - Atlantic Basin


Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241751
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical 
Cyclone Fiona, currently in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, on 
Tropical Storm Gaston, located near the western Azores, on Tropical 
Storm Ian, located over the central Caribbean Sea, and on Tropical 
Storm Hermine, located over the far eastern Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a 
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Despite unfavorable 
upper-level winds, some slow development of this system is possible 
over the next several days while it drifts northwestward or 
northward over the central tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona (AT2/AL072022)

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...
 As of 2:00 PM AST Sat Sep 24
 the center of Fiona was located near 47.7, -61.4
 with movement N at 25 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 948 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Public Advisory Number 41A

Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Sep 24 2022  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 241744
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 41A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
200 PM AST Sat Sep 24 2022
 
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.7N 61.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm 
Watch for Labrador and discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for 
all of Nova Scotia. 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Isle-de-la-Madeleine
* Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland
* Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland
* Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona
was located near latitude 47.7 North, longitude 61.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 25 mph (41
km/h), and a slower northward motion is expected during the next 
few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will move
across the Gulf of St. Lawrence through this evening, and then move 
across Labrador and over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of
days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 405
miles (650 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 948 mb (28.00 inches).  Several observing sites in 
Atlantic Canada are recording gale- and storm-force winds.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the
hurricane warning area in Canada. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in Canada.
 
RAINFALL:  Fiona is forecast to produce the following additional
rainfall:
 
Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 1 to 3
inches (25 to 75 mm), resulting in storm total rainfall maxima of up
to 10 inches (200 mm). Flooding is expected, some of which could be
significant.
 
Labrador and eastern Quebec:  2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm).
 
Eastern New Brunswick: 1 inch (25 mm) with locally higher amounts.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding within the warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of
onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fiona are affecting Atlantic Canada, the
northeastern United States coast, and Bermuda. The swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Forecast Advisory Number 41

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 241432
TCMAT2
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO BRULE
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* ISLE-DE-LA-MADELEINE
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO FRANCOIS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. ANDREWS NEW BRUNSWICK TO WEST OF HUBBARDS NOVA SCOTIA
* WEST OF BRULE NOVA SCOTIA TO CAP MADELEINE QUEBEC
* ANTICOSTI ISLAND
* SHELDRAKE QUEBEC TO NORTH OF PARSON'S POND NEWFOUNDLAND
* BOAT HARBOR TO HARE BAY NEWFOUNDLAND
* FRANCOIS TO ST LAWRENCE NEWFOUNDLAND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BOAT HARBOR NEWFOUNDLAND TO WEST BAY LABRADOR
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.9N  61.3W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT  22 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
34 KT.......270NE 350SE 350SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 960SE 780SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.9N  61.3W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.2N  61.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 50.0N  60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 54.1N  59.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 58.1N  58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 61.0N  59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 63.3N  58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 65.3N  56.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.9N  61.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Forecast Discussion Number 41

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 241435
TCDAT2
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 24 2022
 
Fiona continues to produce hurricane-force winds, heavy rains,
storm surge, and rough marine conditions across Atlantic Canada and
the surrounding waters. Surface observations suggest that the
minimum pressure has been rising, and is now estimated to be 
about 945 mb, which is still extraordinarily low.  The maximum 
winds of the storm are decreasing and are estimated to be near 70 
kt.
 
Fiona is now an occluded low, and it has slowed down.  The initial
motion is estimated to be northward at 22 kt.  A slower northward
motion is forecast during the next few days, taking the center of
the system across the Gulf of St. Lawrence through tonight, across
Labrador early Sunday, and into the Labrador Sea by Sunday night.
The NHC track forecast is just a touch to the west of the previous
one.
 
Winds are expected to fall below hurricane strength later today,
but the cyclone is still forecast to be a potent low for the next
day or so while it continues to affect Atlantic Canada.  NHC will
continue to issue forecasts for Fiona until gale-force winds end
along the Atlantic Canada coastline.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Fiona is forecast to continue to affect portions of Atlantic
Canada during the next day or so, and significant impacts
from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of
Atlantic Canada.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona are expected to continue to impact 
portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western 
Newfoundland today, persisting across eastern Quebec and Labrador 
into Sunday. This rainfall is expected to produce flooding, some of 
which could be significant. 
 
3. Large swells generated by Fiona are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the coast of
the northeast United States, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during
the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 47.9N  61.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  25/0000Z 50.0N  60.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  25/1200Z 54.1N  59.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  26/0000Z 58.1N  58.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  26/1200Z 61.0N  59.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  27/0000Z 63.3N  58.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/1200Z 65.3N  56.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 241434
PWSAT2
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  41     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072022               
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 47.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ILE ST PIERRE  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BURGEO NFLD    50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PTX BASQUES    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PTX BASQUES    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PTX BASQUES    64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
EDDY POINT NS  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SYDNEY NS      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SYDNEY NS      50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
HALIFAX NS     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MONCTON NB     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MONCTON NB     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ST JOHN NB     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
EASTPORT ME    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 17:45:34 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 15:23:20 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Gaston (AT3/AL082022)

...GASTON TURNS WESTWARD...
 As of 6:00 PM GMT Sat Sep 24
 the center of Gaston was located near 38.0, -31.0
 with movement W at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Gaston Public Advisory Number 17A

Issued at 600 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 241755
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
600 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022
 
...GASTON TURNS WESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 PM GMT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 31.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flores and Corvo in the western Azores
* Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the central
Azores
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM GMT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was 
located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 31.0 West. Gaston is 
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion 
is expected to continue through Sunday.  A turn to the southwest is 
forecast by late Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and
Gaston is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later this 
evening.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gaston can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in portions of the 
western Azores for the next several hours.  See products issued by 
the meteorological service in the Azores for more information.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores through tonight.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
RAINFALL:  Gaston is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts of 3
inches across the western and central Azores.  This will result in
storm total rainfall of 2 to 6 inches which may result in landslides
and areas of flooding.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Tropical Storm Gaston Forecast Advisory Number 17

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 241455
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES AND CORVO IN THE WESTERN AZORES
* FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL
AZORES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N  30.8W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE  90SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N  30.8W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N  30.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 38.2N  32.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.4N  35.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 38.2N  37.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 37.5N  39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 36.7N  40.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 35.6N  43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 33.0N  48.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N  30.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Tropical Storm Gaston Forecast Discussion Number 17

Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 241455
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022
 
Gaston has lost most of its deep convection and it is currently an 
exposed low-level circulation.  The closest relatively deep 
convective activity is south of Pico Island over 100 miles away 
from the center and likely terrain-induced. Though a recent 
scatterometer pass missed the center of Gaston, it did show an area 
of tropical-storm-force winds of around 35 kt to the east of the 
center.  Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 
kt, slightly higher than the satellite intensity estimates.
 
Hostile environmental conditions have weakened Gaston considerably.
The strong vertical wind shear and dry mid-level humidities are not
expected to improve for the remainder of the forecast period, and
additional weakening is likely.  The official forecast is similar to
the previous prediction and still shows Gaston becoming fully
post-tropical within 12 hours.  A couple of the global models,
however, indicate a mid-latitude shortwave trough/baroclinic zone
interacting with post-tropical Gaston early Sunday morning could
develop isolated deep convection, but this should be a short-lived
event.
 
The storm is moving west-southwestward at an estimated 245/8 kt.  A
building mid-level ridge to the north is expected to steer Gaston
to the west through Monday morning, and to the west-southwest 
until it dissipates near the end of the week.  The NHC forecast 
track is shifted slightly south of the previous advisory track, 
likely due to the southern shift of the initial position.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions over the western and central Azores
today should diminish today as Gaston moves away from the islands.
 
2. Gaston is expected to produce heavy rainfall over the western
and central Azores through Saturday.  This rainfall may result in
landslides and areas of flooding.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 38.0N  30.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 38.2N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  25/1200Z 38.4N  35.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  26/0000Z 38.2N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  26/1200Z 37.5N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/0000Z 36.7N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1200Z 35.6N  43.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1200Z 33.0N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci

Tropical Storm Gaston Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 241455
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082022               
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI

Tropical Storm Gaston Update Statement

Issued at 605 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022  

000
WTNT63 KNHC 241805
TCUAT3
 
Tropical Storm Gaston Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
605 PM GMT Sat Sep 24 2022
 
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE CENTRAL AZORES...

The Azores Meteorological Service has discontinued the Tropical 
Storm Warning for the islands of Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa 
and Terceira in the central Azores.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Tropical Storm Gaston Graphics

Tropical Storm Gaston 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 18:07:06 GMT

Tropical Storm Gaston 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 15:29:34 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Ian (AT4/AL092022)

...IAN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND...
 As of 2:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 24
 the center of Ian was located near 14.2, -75.8
 with movement W at 16 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Ian Public Advisory Number 6A

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022  

606 
WTNT34 KNHC 241752
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022
 
...IAN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN LATER THIS WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 75.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of the Cayman Islands has upgraded the Hurricane 
Watch to a Hurricane Warning for Grand Cayman, and has changed the 
Hurricane Watch to a Tropical Storm Watch for Little Cayman and 
Cayman Brac.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in western and central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the
Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was 
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 75.8 West. Ian is moving 
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is 
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is 
forecast on Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn on Monday 
and a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center 
of Ian is forecast to pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass 
near the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then 
approach western Cuba late Monday and emerge over the southeastern 
Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few
days. Ian is expected to become a hurricane late Sunday or Sunday
night and could be at or near major hurricane strength late Monday
when it approaches western Cuba.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by 
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sunday 
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica by Sunday, 
and on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by Sunday night.  
 
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:
 
Southern Haiti and southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maxima up to 6 inches
 
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima up
to 12 inches
 
Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 14
inches
 
Florida Keys and south Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with local maxima up
to 5 inches through Tuesday morning
 
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the
Florida peninsula through mid next week. Additional flooding and
rises on area streams and rivers across Florida cannot be ruled out
through next week given already saturated antecedent conditions.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to
4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.
 
Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands on Sunday and spread westward to Cuba by Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Advisory Number 6

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 241453
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  75.2W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  75.2W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  74.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.5N  76.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.5N  78.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.0N  80.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N  82.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.7N  83.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.7N  84.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N  83.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.6N  82.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N  75.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 241454
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022
 
Ian still has an asymmetric appearance in satellite imagery this 
morning, with most of the deep convection located over the western 
portion of the circulation. Tail Doppler radar and dropsonde data 
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the cyclone is still 
vertically tilted, with the low- to mid-level center displaced to 
the south of the surface center. This structure is likely a product 
of the northerly shear that has affected the cyclone since genesis. 
The aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 43 kt and SFMR 
retrievals slightly above 35 kt, which supports keeping the initial 
intensity at 40 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is a bit south of due west at 260/13 kt. A 
generally westward motion is expected through tonight as the cyclone 
is steered by a narrow ridge to its north. Ian is forecast to turn 
northwestward on Sunday and north-northwestward on Monday as it 
moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea around the periphery of 
the ridge. The NHC track forecast during this period has been 
adjusted slightly south and west of the previous one, in line with 
the track consensus aids. Beyond 72 h, there is still a large amount 
of cross-track spread in the guidance as Ian emerges into the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches Florida. Hopefully, data 
collected from special radiosonde releases beginning later today and 
a scheduled NOAA G-IV flight will help resolve the steering flow 
around Ian and deep-layer trough that is forecast to be over the 
eastern U.S. early next week. The guidance envelope has once again 
shifted westward this cycle, and the official NHC track forecast has 
been adjusted in this direction as well, though it still lies 
slightly to the east of the TVCA and HCCA aids. Further adjustments 
to the track forecast may be needed given the increased uncertainty 
in the day 3-5 period. 

Ian is moving into a lower shear environment over very warm waters, 
and it should not take long for the system to shed its tilted 
structure and develop an inner core. Once that occurs, significant 
to rapid intensification is expected while Ian crosses the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The intensity guidance unanimously 
supports strengthening during the next several days, and the 
SHIPS-RII probabilities indicate a 67 percent chance of a 65-kt 
intensity increase in 72 h. Therefore, the NHC track forecast has 
been raised from the previous one, showing Ian becoming a hurricane 
by late Sunday and approaching western Cuba at or near major 
hurricane strength by Monday night. Limited land interaction is 
expected as the cyclone quickly passes over western Cuba, and Ian 
is forecast to be a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico 
on Tuesday and Wednesday as it approaches the west coast of Florida.
  
Key Messages:
 
1.  Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and 
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over 
Jamaica and Cuba. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with 
rainfall across the Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid 
next week.
 
2.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early 
Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday.  
Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica on
Sunday.

3.  Ian is forecast to move near or over western Cuba and approach 
the west coast of the Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane 
strength early next week, where there is increasing confidence in 
multiple life-threatening hazards: storm surge, hurricane-force 
winds and rainfall flooding. While it is too soon to determine the 
exact magnitude and location of these hazards, residents in Cuba, 
the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have 
their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local 
officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 14.4N  75.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 14.5N  76.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 15.5N  78.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 17.0N  80.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 18.8N  82.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 20.7N  83.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 22.7N  84.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 26.0N  83.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 28.6N  82.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Storm Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 241454
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  23(32)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  19(24)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
WAYCROSS GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  24(34)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  22(30)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  28(42)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  23(36)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  28(46)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  23(41)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)  20(41)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)  20(42)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)  17(38)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  19(23)  12(35)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  18(25)  10(35)
FT LAUDERDALE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
FT LAUDERDALE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)  10(29)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   8(28)
HOMESTEAD ARB  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
HOMESTEAD ARB  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)  20(43)   5(48)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   3(14)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  33(34)  21(55)   5(60)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  12(20)   4(24)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  35(50)  13(63)
NAPLES FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   8(27)
NAPLES FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  27(33)  16(49)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   9(21)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  40(50)  18(68)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)  16(38)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  10(20)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  36(40)  25(65)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  20(34)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  28(29)  30(59)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  19(29)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  20(28)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  21(31)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  22(41)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  27(28)  23(51)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  14(23)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  18(31)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
WHITING FLD FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  13(26)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   4(21)   1(22)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   9(19)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  55(63)   8(71)   1(72)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  34(35)   8(43)   1(44)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   5(25)   1(26)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  51(59)  10(69)   2(71)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)   7(31)   1(32)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   5(16)   X(16)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  22(24)  53(77)   3(80)   X(80)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  42(45)   2(47)   X(47)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   3(25)   X(25)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  16(21)   4(25)   1(26)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   2( 2)  21(23)  51(74)   7(81)   X(81)   X(81)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  34(37)   8(45)   X(45)   X(45)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   7(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   5( 5)  11(16)   3(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
KINGSTON       34  1   5( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Tropical Storm Ian Graphics

Tropical Storm Ian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 17:53:22 GMT

Tropical Storm Ian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 15:35:31 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Hermine (AT5/AL102022)

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
 As of 2:00 PM CVT Sat Sep 24
 the center of Hermine was located near 20.8, -20.8
 with movement N at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Hermine Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 200 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 241435
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
200 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022
 
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 20.8W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM NNE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 20.8 West. Hermine is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue during the next day or two.  After that time, 
a turn toward the northwest is expected.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Weakening is forecast, and Hermine is expected to become a 
remnant low in a day or two.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce 3 to 6 (75 to 150 mm) 
inches of rainfall with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches 
(250 mm) across the Canary Islands through this weekend. This
rainfall may cause some flash flooding in areas of higher terrain.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Hermine Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 241435
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102022
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N  20.8W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N  20.8W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  20.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.1N  20.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.6N  20.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.5N  20.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.0N  20.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.4N  21.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N  20.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Storm Hermine Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 200 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 241436
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
200 PM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022
 
Hermine is a strongly sheared and weak tropical cyclone.  Satellite
images indicate that the low-level center is exposed well to the
south-southwest of the main area of deep convection.  A recent
ASCAT-B pass caught the eastern half of the storm and showed
peak winds of about 30 kt well northeast of the center.  Based on
this data and the Dvorak estimates, Hermine is being held at a
35-kt tropical storm for this advisory, but that could be a little
generous.  Regardless, the main impact is heavy rain that continues 
across the Canary Islands.
 
The storm is moving northward at 7 kt and that motion is expected 
to continue during the next day or two while Hermine moves in the 
flow on the west side of a subtropical ridge.   After that time, a 
turn toward the left is expected as the shallow system is steered by 
the low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast remains near the middle 
of the guidance envelope.
 
Hermine is currently experiencing about 20 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear.  Since the shear is expected to increase while
Hermine moves into a region of cooler SSTs and drier air, weakening
is forecast.  Hermine is now predicted to become a remnant low in
36 hours, but given recent trends and the expected environment, the
transition to a post-tropical cyclone could occur sooner than that.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 20.8N  20.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 22.1N  20.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 23.6N  20.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 24.5N  20.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1200Z 25.0N  20.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/0000Z 25.4N  21.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Hermine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 241435
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102022               
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Storm Hermine Graphics

Tropical Storm Hermine 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 14:45:08 GMT

Tropical Storm Hermine 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 15:41:34 GMT



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The cloud height on this site is an estimate of cumulus clouds using a formula based on temperature and dew point. Actual measurements of cloud height are made with a Micropulse Lidar (MPL). This device fires a laser into the sky and measures the backscattered signal. Costs for such a device are beyond the scope of weather hobbyists.

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