Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120531
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Simon, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south 
of the coast of Guatemala, accompanied by some shower and 
thunderstorm activity.  This system has become better defined since 
yesterday, and environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for further development.  A tropical depression is 
expected to form well south of southern Mexico in a few days while
the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Blake

Summary for Hurricane Simon (EP5/EP202026)

...SIMON CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...THREAT OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST... As of 11:00 PM MST Sun Oct 11 the center of Simon was located near 19.9, -106.2 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane Simon Public Advisory Number 19a

Issued at 1100 PM MST Sun Oct 11 2026 000
WTPZ35 KNHC 120557
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Simon Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
1100 PM MST Sun Oct 11 2026
 
...SIMON CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL 
MEXICO...
...THREAT OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES ALONG
THE COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 106.2W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Simon was located
near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 106.2 West. Simon is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general heading 
is expected to continue into early Tuesday. A turn toward the 
northeast is forecast thereafter, and Simon is expected to move 
inland across west-central Mexico around midweek.
 
Maximum sustained winds have weakened to near 115 mph (185 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Simon is a category 3 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast to 
continue, however Simon is expected to remain a hurricane through 
midweek. Rapid weakening is likely after Simon moves inland.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely occuring in the Hurricane
Warning area, with hurricane conditions spreading northward later
tonight into Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
watch area by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Tuesday night.
 
RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches with isolated additional amounts of 8 inches over
portions of the states of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa
through early Thursday. Isolated maximum storm totals of 30 inches
are possible over portions of the states of Michoacan, Colima, and
Jalisco. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides or worsen any on-going flooding, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected along the immediate
coast near and to the east of where the center approaches land. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Blake

Hurricane Simon Forecast Advisory Number 19

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 12 2026 000
WTPZ25 KNHC 120246
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202026
0300 UTC MON OCT 12 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 106.0W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  956 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  25SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  50SW  40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE  90SE  90SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 106.0W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 105.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.8N 107.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.0N 106.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.4N 106.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 24.0N 105.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 106.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 12/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ADAMS/CANGIALOSI

Hurricane Simon Forecast Discussion Number 19

Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Oct 11 2026 000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120251
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Simon Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
800 PM MST Sun Oct 11 2026
 
Simon is showing signs of weakening this evening, likely due to its 
prolonged close proximity to the Mexican coastline and the 
associated negative affects of nearby mountainous terrain. Infrared 
satellite imagery indicates warming cloud tops within the convection 
in the northeastern quadrant, with mid-level dry air beginning to 
wrap around the western side of the cyclone. Recent objective Dvorak 
intensity estimates have decreased over the past several hours and 
range from 99-110 kt. Based on the deteriorating satellite 
presentation and the lower intensity estimates, the initial 
intensity is set at 105 kt for this advisory. 

The major hurricane is moving slowly north-northwestward, steered by 
a mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United States. 
Simon is forecast to track parallel to the coast of west-central 
Mexico over the next day or so. However, its continued close 
proximity to land will likely bring hurricane conditions to portions 
of the warning area, particularly near Cabo Corrientes, even though 
the core is forecast to remain just offshore. Around midweek, a 
strong upper-level low moving across the western United States is 
expected to induce a turn toward the north and then northeast. 
Although there remains some model spread, an increasing number of 
the hurricane regional models and consensus aids, including HCCA, 
bring Simon onshore around midweek. The latest NHC forecast is very 
similar to the previous advisory, showing Simon moving inland and 
dissipating in the day 3-4 period. 

Gradual weakening is expected due to the proximity to the 
mountainous terrain, which could further disrupt the hurricane's 
structure along its eastern side. A slight increase in wind shear 
and the entrainment of drier mid-level air should further contribute 
to the weakening trend. However, as Simon turns northward then 
northeastward around midweek, it is forecast to move over very warm 
waters of 31-32 C, which could limit further weakening before 
landfall. The latest NHC forecast has been nudged upward slightly 
beyond 12 h, with Simon expected to maintain hurricane strength 
through landfall. This forecast lies near the middle of the 
intensity guidance envelope. Rapid weakening is expected once Simon 
moves inland, and dissipation is forecast by 96 h. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are 
likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a 
Hurricane Warning is in effect from Playa Perula to El Roblito. 
Residents should continue to shelter in a safe room to ride out the 
storm as the most significant hazards are ongoing.

2. Simon is expected to approach the coast of western Mexico later 
this week, where hurricane conditions are possible. A Hurricane 
Watch is in effect from El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya. 

3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of 
southwestern and west-central Mexico over the next few days. This 
rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
4. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central
coast of Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 19.8N 106.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 20.5N 106.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 21.8N 107.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 22.4N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  14/1200Z 23.0N 106.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 23.4N 106.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 96H  16/0000Z 24.0N 105.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Cangialosi

Hurricane Simon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 12 2026 000
FOPZ15 KNHC 120249
PWSEP5
                                                                    
HURRICANE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202026               
0300 UTC MON OCT 12 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34  6  54(60)   9(69)   1(70)   2(72)   1(73)   X(73)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  1  29(30)   7(37)   1(38)   1(39)   1(40)   X(40)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X  17(17)   5(22)   X(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  29(46)   4(50)   X(50)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   3(19)   X(19)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
P VALLARTA     34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ADAMS/CANGIALOSI

Hurricane Simon Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Oct 2026 03:22:44 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 120532
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west 
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large but 
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms extending from 
these islands southwestward into the eastern tropical Atlantic. 
Environmental conditions appear, at best, marginally conducive for 
any development of this system during the next day or two before 
upper-level winds become too strong for any further development. 
Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the couple of days 
for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly 
northward to north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 12 Oct 2026 08:32:37 GMT