835 
ABPZ20 KNHC 242323
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 24 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located around 300 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A trough of low pressure located about 1600 miles south-southeast
of Hilo, Hawaii is producing disorganized shower activity.  Some
gradual development of this system is possible through the end of
this week while it moves westward into the eastern portion of the
central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

555 
ABNT20 KNHC 242330
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Leslie, located about 1200 miles west of the Azores.

A broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles south-
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to become slightly more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form tonight or Tuesday while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward. By Tuesday night and
Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to increase and limit
the chances for additional development while the system moves
northward near the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this system will likely enhance rainfall
across portions of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North
Carolina Tuesday and Tuesday night. In addition, dangerous surf
conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast on Tuesday. For more information, please see
products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave, the remnants of Kirk, is located about 1300 miles
east of the Windward Islands. This system continues to produce
a large area of showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to gale
force over the northern portion of the wave, while it moves quickly
westward at around 25 mph. This system could redevelop into a
tropical cyclone during the next few days before it encounters
highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it approaches the
Caribbean Sea. For more information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Subtropical Storm Leslie is expected to become post-tropical
Tuesday night or Wednesday after it merges with a cold front over
the central Atlantic. After that time, Leslie could reacquire some
subtropical or tropical characteristics by the end of the week as
it meanders over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Tropical Storm Subtropical

• Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
  

Tropical Storm Leslie

• Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 6
  
• Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 6
  
• Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 6
  
• Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
  
• Subtropical Storm Leslie Graphics
  
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 20:39:56 GMT
  
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 21:21:59 GMT