Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111734
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Simon, located just offshore of southwestern Mexico, and has issued 
the final advisory on the remnants of Rachel, located inland over 
Nevada.

South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave over the far eastern East Pacific is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form well south of southern Mexico by the 
middle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally 
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Papin

Summary for Remnants of Rachel (EP3/EP182026)

...REMNANTS OF RACHEL BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM... As of 8:00 AM MST Sun Oct 11 the center of Rachel was located near 35.8, -114.6 with movement NNE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Remnants of Rachel Public Advisory Number 58

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Oct 11 2026 000
WTPZ33 KNHC 111442
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Remnants Of Rachel Advisory Number  58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 AM MST Sun Oct 11 2026
 
...REMNANTS OF RACHEL BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.8N 114.6W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM NNE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal warnings.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For more information, Please consult products from your local 
weather office.
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Rachel were located near
latitude 35.8 North, longitude 114.6 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h).
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.
 
WIND: High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect across 
the southwestern United States. Gusty winds associated with the 
remnants of Rachel are spreading over interior portions of the 
southwestern United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, 
today and tomorrow. For more information, Please consult products 
from your local weather office. 
 
RAINFALL: Rachel and its associated moisture will bring total 
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum amounts locally up to 5 
inches from Southern California into the Great Basin and portions of 
the Southwest United States through today. This will continue to 
lead to the potential for significant flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk 
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ero.
 
SURF: Waves generated by Rachel will continue along the coasts of 
Southern California and northern Baja California today. These waves, 
combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Coastal flooding 
and erosion are expected to worsen this morning as the highest waves 
coincide with the high tides and water levels that are already 
running well above predicted levels. Moderate to major coastal 
flooding is expected, with hazardous coastal conditions continuing 
the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane 
Center on this system. For more information, Please consult 
products from your local weather office at 
https://www.weather.gov/

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml 
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Remnants of Rachel Forecast Advisory Number 58

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026 000
WTPZ23 KNHC 111442
TCMEP3
 
REMNANTS OF RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182026
1500 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026
 
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 114.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  25 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 114.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 115.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 114.6W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HAZARDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL, PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL 
WEATHER OFFICE AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/

RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML 
AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP
.
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Remnants of Rachel Forecast Discussion Number 58

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Oct 11 2026 000
WTPZ43 KNHC 111444
TCDEP3
 
Remnants Of Rachel Discussion Number  58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 AM MST Sun Oct 11 2026
 
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Rachel has 
dissipated over the southwestern United States, and this is the last 
NHC advisory. However, the remnants of Rachel are still producing 
areas of heavy rain and gusty winds over portions of the 
southwestern U.S. The initial intensity is estimated to be around 30 
kt.
 
The remnant trough is forecast to continue to weaken, but the 
associated moisture will likely produce heavy rainfall, flooding, 
and gusty winds across the Southwest U.S. today and tonight.

This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National 
Hurricane Center on this system. For more information on hazards 
associated with the Remnants of Rachel, Please consult products 
from your local weather office at https://www.weather.gov/

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml 
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at 
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Damaging wind gusts, especially in areas of higher terrain, are 
forecast to spread farther inland over interior portions of the 
southwestern United States today. High Wind Warnings and Wind 
Advisories are in effect across the southwestern United States.
 
2. Areas of heavy rainfall from the remnants of Rachel and its 
associated moisture will continue to result in the potential for 
significant flash and urban flooding today from Southern California 
into the Great Basin and portions of the Southwest United States.
 
3. Waves generated by Rachel, combined with an incoming long-period
southerly swell, will produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja
California. Major coastal flooding has already been occurring in
some areas, with observed water levels running as much as 1.5 feet
above predictions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to
worsen this morning as the highest waves associated with Rachel
coincide with high tides and already elevated water levels.
Hazardous coastal conditions are expected to continue the next few 
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 35.8N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Remnants of Rachel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 58

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026 000
FOPZ13 KNHC 111443
PWSEP3
                                                                    
REMNANTS OF RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  58              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182026               
1500 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8     
NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30   
KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
 
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...


 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY

Remnants of Rachel Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 11 Oct 2026 15:22:39 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Simon (EP5/EP202026)

...CORE OF HURRICANE SIMON CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY OCCURING... ...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FARTHER UP THE MEXICAN COAST... As of 3:00 PM CST Sun Oct 11 the center of Simon was located near 19.6, -105.8 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Hurricane Simon Public Advisory Number 18

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Oct 11 2026 000
WTPZ35 KNHC 112054
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Simon Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
300 PM CST Sun Oct 11 2026
 
...CORE OF HURRICANE SIMON CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY OCCURING...
...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FARTHER UP THE MEXICAN COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 105.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for north of
El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Simon was located 
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 105.8 West. Simon is moving 
toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general 
motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days with a 
gradual turn to the north and north-northeast on Tuesday into 
Wednesday. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to pass near the 
coast of west-central Mexico this afternoon and evening before 
moving a little farther away on Monday. Simon is then forecast to 
turn back towards the coast of Mexico on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is 
forecast but Simon is still expected to be a strong hurricane as it 
passes near the coast of west-central Mexico this afternoon and 
evening. Simon is now expected to remain a hurricane when it moves 
farther offshore again on Monday and Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). 
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely occuring in the Hurricane 
Warning area, with hurricane conditions spreading northward later 
this evening into Monday.
 
Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by 
Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night.
 
RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 
2 to 4 inches with isolated additional amounts of 8 inches over 
portions of the states of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa 
through early Thursday. Isolated maximum storm totals of 30 inches 
are possible over portions of the states of Michoacan, Colima, and 
Jalisco. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides or worsen any on-going flooding, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected along the immediate
coast near and to the east of where the center approaches land. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Hurricane Simon Forecast Advisory Number 18

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026 000
WTPZ25 KNHC 112052
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202026
2100 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 105.8W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE  90SE 120SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 105.8W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 105.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.2N 106.1W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.0N 106.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.6N 106.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.2N 107.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.8N 107.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 23.4N 106.6W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 24.0N 105.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 105.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 12/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Hurricane Simon Forecast Discussion Number 18

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Oct 11 2026 000
WTPZ45 KNHC 112112 CCA
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Simon Discussion Number  18...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
300 PM CST Sun Oct 11 2026

Corrected spelling of Sierra in first sentence.

Simon is still a Category 4 hurricane, but appears to be feeling the 
effects of the nearby high terrain of the Sierra Madre Mountains as 
the inner core is brushing up against the Mexican coast. The eye 
remains observed on geostationary satellite imagery, but is more 
cloud filled than earlier with warmer surrounding cloud tops. While 
the 18 UTC subjective Dvorak fix was still at T6.5/125 kt, the 
objective intensity estimates have continued to fall, with values 
now in the 109-115 kt range. Therefore, the initial intensity is 
being lowered to 115 kt for this advisory. An earlier Synthetic 
Aperture Radar (SAR) RCM-1 pass was very useful to adjust the 34- 
50- and 64-kt radii of Simon as the hurricanes wind field continues 
to shrink in size. 

Simon has stubbornly maintained a north-northwestward motion, 
roughly parallel to the coastline, estimated at 335/5 kt. It is now 
looking increasingly likely that Simon will avoid making a direct 
landfall in the short-term, though its eastern inner core will 
likely produce hurricane conditions as the storm continues to move 
north-northwestward from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes this 
afternoon and evening. The steering ridge centered over the Texas 
coast is likely to maintain this motion now for the next several 
days, though with some slowdown in the motion due to a weaker but 
competing ridge located to Simon's southwest. On Tuesday into 
Wednesday, a large short-wave trough is forecast to move across the 
southwestern United States and this feature should provide enough 
southwesterly environmental flow to turn the hurricane to the 
northeast, finally reaching the coast of Mexico in 60-72 h. Compared 
to this morning, the guidance has shifted westward and slower once 
again, and there remain some outlier solutions like the GFS that 
want to turn Simon southwestward beyond 48 h. However, the majority 
of the ensemble guidance (European-EPS, Google DeepMind) do show 
this slow recurving solution back into Mexico. The NHC track 
forecast is a little bit west and slower for the first 36-48 h, but 
then bends back to the previous forecast track thereafter, still 
showing Simon moving inland and dissipating in the day 3-4 period.  
This forecast still remains low confidence. 

Intensity wise, it is now looking more likely that Simon will not 
weaken as much as originally expected, now that it is only brushing 
up against the coast instead of part of its inner core moving 
inland. Still, the high topography in Jalisco should still have a 
negative effect, which has already been seen in Simon's wind field 
shrinking in size. The hurricane-regional models still show 
significant weakening over the next 12-24 h, even the ones that only 
skirt the coast of Mexico, and the NHC intensity forecast still 
shows a fast rate of weakening during that time. However, other 
environmental conditions remain very favorable, as shear stays under 
10 kt, and sea-surface temperatures warm to 31-32 C as Simon passes 
north of Cabo Corrientes and enters waters that have been unaffected 
by recent tropical cyclones (Polo and Rachel). However, there will 
be a significant amount of nearby dry air and it remains to be seen 
how intact Simon's inner core will remain over the next 24 h of near 
land interaction. The latest NHC intensity forecast now shows Simon 
maintaining hurricane intensity, and this forecast could still be 
low if the inner core remains more robust than the hurricane 
regional models are forecasting. This forecast is now on the higher 
end of the intensity guidance aids, but is under the SHIPS guidance 
this cycle, and also remains low confidence. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are 
likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a 
Hurricane Warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito. 
Residents should continue to shelter in a safe room to ride out the 
storm as the most significant hazards with Simon are now ongoing.

2. Simon is now expected to approach the coast of west Mexico later 
this week, where Hurricane conditions are now possible along the 
coast of El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya. A Hurricane Watch is now in 
effect for this region. 

3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of 
southwestern and west-central Mexico over the next few days. This 
rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
4. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central
coast of Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 19.6N 105.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 20.2N 106.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 21.0N 106.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 21.6N 106.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 22.2N 107.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z 22.8N 107.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 23.4N 106.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 24.0N 105.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Hurricane Simon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026 000
FOPZ15 KNHC 112054
PWSEP5
                                                                    
HURRICANE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202026               
2100 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1  45(46)  17(63)   4(67)   2(69)   X(69)   X(69)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X  21(21)  12(33)   3(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X  11(11)   7(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  27(36)   6(42)   X(42)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   2(14)   X(14)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
P VALLARTA     34  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34 12   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

Hurricane Simon Graphics

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 11 Oct 2026 21:22:09 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111715
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles 
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but 
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, extending from these 
islands southwestward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic. 
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some 
development of this system over the next day or two before 
upper-level winds become too strong for any further development by 
midweek. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the next few 
days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves 
slowly northward to north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Papin

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias (AT4/AL092026)

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM ISAIAS IS DECREASING BUT SOME RISK CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 the center of Isaias was located near 37.5, -84.0 with movement ENE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Public Advisory Number 20

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 20

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026 000
WTNT24 KWNH 111459
TCMAT4
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD   AL092026
1500 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N  84.0W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  65 DEGREES AT  19 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  20 KT WITH GUSTS TO  30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N  84.0W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N  84.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 38.8N  80.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N  84.0W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER CHENARD

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 20

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 000
WTNT44 KWNH 111500
TCDAT4
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number  20
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL092026
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue across portions of the 
Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today, with localized flash 
and urban flooding possible. River flooding continues in western 
North Carolina. 

2. Swells from Isaias will continue to affect much of the Gulf and
Southeastern Atlantic coasts of the United States today. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
3. A couple of tornadoes are possible today across the Piedmont and
Coastal Plain of Virginia and North Carolina.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 37.5N  84.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 12H  12/0000Z 38.8N  80.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Chenard

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Graphics