Updated:
28-Jun-2022 10:55pm @
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The station is located Lat: 33° 39´ 11´´ N |
Time of Next Full Update: 11:00 pm - Station Elev: 1469 ft |
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Tropical Systems and Sea Surface Temperature Map![]() |
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Current US Satellite Loop
Space Science & Engineering Center 12 Hour Satellite LoopEastern Pacific Area InfraRed Terrain MapThe above images were produced by the University of Wisconsin Space Science and Engineering Center Tropical Activity - Eastern PacificEastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 290554 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Jun 28 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Atlantic basin Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, currently located in the eastern Caribbean Sea to the north of Venezuela. The system is forecast to cross Central America and move into the east Pacific basin, as a tropical cyclone, over the weekend. Offshore of Southern Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure system centered a few hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico continue to show signs of organization. However, recently received satellite wind data suggests the circulation is somewhat less defined than earlier today. Environmental conditions still appear favorable for additional development over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster PapinThere are no tropical cyclones at this time.
Tropical Activity - Atlantic BasinAtlantic/Gulf of Mexico/CaribbeanAtlantic Tropical Weather Outlook000 ABNT20 KNHC 290552 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: East of the Windward Islands: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea to the north of Venezuela. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Northern Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move slowly westward or west- southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next day or two. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland tonight or Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. This system is forecast to interact with another tropical wave over the next couple of days, and some gradual development is possible later this week. The overall system is forecast to be near the Windward islands by the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (AT2/AL022022)...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR ISLA MARGARITA... As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Jun 29 the center of Two was located near 11.1, -64.1 with movement WNW at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory Number 6AIssued at 200 AM AST Wed Jun 29 2022 000 WTNT32 KNHC 290553 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 200 AM AST Wed Jun 29 2022 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR ISLA MARGARITA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 64.1W ABOUT 330 MI...525 KM ESE OF CURACAO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua * Bonaire * Curacao * Aruba * Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of Venezuela. * Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to Santa Marta A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 64.1 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h). A westward or west- northwestward motion is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea and the northern coast of Venezuela today, near the northeast coast of Colombia on Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the disturbance remains over water. Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. Maurice Bishop International Airport on Grenada recently reported a wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela today and from the ABC Islands to portions of northwest Venezuela tonight. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches. St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches. Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago, and northeast Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches. Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwest Venezuela: 3 to 5 inches. These rainfall amounts could cause localized flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the southern Windward Islands for a few more hours, over Islas Margarita and the adjacent islands through this morning, and over the ABC Islands by this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela during the next few hours, and in the watch area along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Colombia by tonight and early Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Advisory Number 6Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 29 2022 000 WTNT22 KNHC 290247 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022 0300 UTC WED JUN 29 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA WESTWARD TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER WESTWARD TO SANTA MARTA. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * ISLAS DE MARGARITA...COCHE AND CUBAGUA * BONAIRE * CURACAO * ARUBA * COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA WESTWARD TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. * COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER WESTWARD TO SANTA MARTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES TO CUMANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 62.8W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 62.8W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 61.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.3N 65.5W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 11.8N 69.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.3N 72.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.3N 76.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.2N 80.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.0N 82.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 12.0N 87.9W...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 13.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 62.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Discussion Number 6Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 000 WTNT42 KNHC 290248 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022 Satellite imagery suggests that the disturbance is slowly getting better organized, with gradually increasing convective banding in the northern semicircle. However, surface observations from Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada indicate that the system has not yet developed a closed circulation. Therefore, it still has the status of a potential tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the various surface observations. The disturbance is forecast to be in an environment of low shear and warm sea surface temperatures if it remains offshore, and this should lead the system to become a tropical cyclone in 12-24 hr. Strengthening is likely to be slow until the system moves away from the coast of South America after 36 h, at which time a faster development appears likely. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and calls for the system to reach hurricane strength over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the 72 h point. Later in the forecast period, the global models still suggest that the cyclone's low-level circulation will remain intact after crossing Central America and this is also shown by the NHC forecast. The system is moving a little faster with the initial motion now a somewhat uncertain 285/23 kt. A general westward motion near or just north of the coast of South America with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two due to the presence of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. A south of west motion may occur for a time while the system is over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track is lies close to the various consensus models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the Windward Islands and parts of northern Venezuela tonight through late Wednesday night. Localized flash flooding will be possible. 2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands for a few more hours, over Islas Margarita Wednesday morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Wednesday. 3. There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with land from tonight through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 10.9N 62.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/1200Z 11.3N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 30/0000Z 11.8N 69.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 30/1200Z 12.3N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 12.3N 76.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 12.2N 80.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 12.0N 82.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 12.0N 87.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN 120H 04/0000Z 13.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 29 2022 592 FONT12 KNHC 290248 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022 0300 UTC WED JUN 29 2022 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28) 1(29) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 3(44) X(44) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LIMON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) LIMON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COLON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PT GALLINAS 34 X 1( 1) 26(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) CURACAO 34 X 28(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) JUANGRIEGO 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Graphics
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