Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 102341
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
downgraded Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central 
subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and has issued the last advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton, located off the east coast of central 
Florida.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Recent satellite wind data show that a broad low pressure area with 
winds of 30 to 35 mph has formed in association with a tropical 
wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. However, the 
system's shower and thunderstorm activity is currently poorly 
organized.  Some additional development could occur while it moves 
westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic 
and the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and  Friday.  By Saturday, 
upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable, and further 
development is unlikely after that time.  Regardless of development, 
localized areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across 
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132024)

...LESLIE RAPIDLY WEAKENS...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 10
 the center of Leslie was located near 23.9, -50.9
 with movement NW at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 992 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 34

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 10 2024  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 102031
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 PM AST Thu Oct 10 2024
 
...LESLIE RAPIDLY WEAKENS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 50.9W
ABOUT 1710 MI...2750 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 50.9 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward
the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the northeast 
on Friday, with an east-northeastward turn expected over the 
weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Rapid weakening is forecast to continue during the next day 
or so, and Leslie is forecast to lose tropical characteristics in a 
few days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 34

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024  

243 
WTNT23 KNHC 102030
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024
2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N  50.9W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 35NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N  50.9W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  50.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N  51.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.0N  50.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.6N  47.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  80SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.5N  43.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  80SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 34.8N  38.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  80SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 36.1N  32.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  70SE  70SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 36.0N  23.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N  50.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 34

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 10 2024  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 102031
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 PM AST Thu Oct 10 2024

The center of Leslie has been exposed for the past 6 h, thanks to 
strong northerly wind shear.  The center has continued to move 
farther away from the convection as the afternoon has progressed.  
The initial intensity is brought down to 60 kt, which agrees with a 
blend of the various objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS.
 
Leslie continues to plow through a zone of strong northerly shear, 
and the SHIPS guidance and model fields indicate Leslie will 
continue to experience 40 kt of northerly to northeasterly shear for 
another 12 to 24 h.  In addition, Leslie is forecast to continue 
moving through a relatively dry environment.  Rapid weakening is 
expected to continue over the next 12 to 24 h, and the latest NHC 
intensity forecast is lower than the previous one due to the weaker 
initial intensity.  If Leslie survives as a tropical cyclone for 
another two days, which is not guaranteed, it will approach a 
frontal zone in 2 to 3 days and could take on some frontal 
characteristics.  While all of the models show Leslie dissipating 
by 4 to 5 days, there is significant uncertainty on whether Leslie 
will become extratropical or just dissipate.
 
Leslie is moving northwestward, or 315/7 kt.  Model guidance is in 
good agreement that a northward turn will happen very soon as 
Leslie moves around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical 
ridge over the eastern Atlantic.  On Friday and Friday night, the 
hurricane should speed up and turn to the northeast, followed by an 
east-northeastward turn as it accelerates further over the weekend.  
There is a bit of along-track spread in the guidance after 48 h, as 
some of the models show Leslie accelerating faster toward the 
east-northeast.  Only minor changes are made to the previous NHC 
track to account for the models being slightly farther west during 
the first 36 h of the forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 23.9N  50.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 24.9N  51.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 27.0N  50.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 29.6N  47.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 32.5N  43.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  13/0600Z 34.8N  38.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  13/1800Z 36.1N  32.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  14/1800Z 36.0N  23.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 102031
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  34           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024               
2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PONTA DELGADA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN

Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 20:33:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 21:23:12 GMT

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton (AT4/AL142024)

...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR MILTON HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 10
 the center of Milton was located near 29.5, -76.3
 with movement E at 21 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 983 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Public Advisory Number 23

Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 102034
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024
 
...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR MILTON HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 76.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton
was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 76.3 West.  Milton 
is moving toward the east near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general 
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 
several days.  On the forecast track, the center of the 
post-tropical cyclone will pass to the south of Bermuda late Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the 
next several days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is expected to continue along 
portions of the southeastern U.S. coast through tonight.  The water 
could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the 
indicated areas...
 
Altamaha Sound, GA to Port Canaveral, FL...1-3 ft
St. Johns River...1-3 ft
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
 
RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts up to an inch are possible 
along the northeastern coast of Florida through this evening. In the 
wake of heavy rainfall from Milton, the risk of considerable urban 
flooding will linger through this evening across east central 
Florida. Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing and forecast 
throughout central Florida.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and 
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. 
 
WIND: Gusty winds will likely continue along portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast through tonight.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the
next couple of days.  These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Forecast Advisory Number 23

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 102034
TCMAT4
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142024
2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N  76.3W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  80 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.
34 KT.......270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N  76.3W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N  77.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.6N  72.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...270NE 150SE 200SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.8N  67.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...240NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.4N  62.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...220NE   0SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.0N  58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.1N  54.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.7N  49.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N  76.3W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE 
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Forecast Discussion Number 23

Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 102035
TCDAT4
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024
 
Milton's satellite appearance has continued to take on an 
extratropical appearance, and ASCAT data from a few hours ago 
confirmed that the cyclone has become frontal.  Based on that 
information, Milton was declared post tropical in the 2 pm 
intermediate advisory.  The ASCAT passes showed maximum winds of 
55-60 kt to the northwest of the center, so the initial intensity 
is set to 60 kt.

Milton has turned eastward and sped up a bit (080/18 kt).  A 
general eastward motion with an increase in forward speed is 
expected during the next several days, with the extratropical low 
forecast to pass south of Bermuda in 24-36 hours.  Global model 
fields and intensity models indicate that the intensity should 
gradually decrease during the next several days, and this is 
reflected in the official forecast.  Dissipation is shown by day 4, 
although there is still some uncertainty if Milton will become 
absorbed by the frontal zone before that time, or retain its 
identity beyond 4 days.

Since all storm surge and tropical storm warnings have been 
discontinued, this will be the last advisory on Milton.  Additional 
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header 
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Gusty winds and coastal flooding will gradually diminish along
portions of the southeastern U.S. coast through tonight.
 
2. In the wake of heavy rainfall from Milton, the risk of 
considerable urban flooding will linger through this evening across 
east central Florida. Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing 
and forecast throughout central Florida.
 
3. In Florida, continue to use caution since deadly hazards remain, 
including downed power lines and flooded areas.  Ensure generators 
are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away 
from doors, windows, and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning.
If you are cleaning up storm damage, be careful when using
chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 29.5N  76.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  11/0600Z 29.6N  72.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  11/1800Z 29.8N  67.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  12/0600Z 30.4N  62.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  12/1800Z 31.0N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  13/0600Z 32.1N  54.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/1800Z 33.7N  49.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 102034
PWSAT4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142024               
2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 20:38:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 21:29:27 GMT

Local Statement for Charleston, SC

Issued at  455 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL

Issued at  455 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024