357
FXUS65 KPSR 230948
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
248 AM MST Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The weather pattern for the rest of this week, and likely
  through most if not all of next week, will support continued
  dry weather with occasional periods of breezy to windy
  conditions.

- Near normal temperatures will be common into next week with most
  days presenting lower desert highs in the mid to upper eighties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A large upper level trough is currently situated over much of the
Western U.S. with the bulk of the energy across the Northern
Rockies. The base of the trough does stretch far enough south to
bring some influence across our region, but overall dry quasi-
zonal flow will be in place for today and Friday. This will lead
to tranquil weather conditions both days with periods of high
clouds and occasional breezes late morning through the afternoon
hours. Temperatures today will stay within seasonal normals, but
some slight warming will be realized on Friday as upper level
heights rise a bit. Forecast highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s
across the lower deserts Friday are the warmest through the end of
the month.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/...
By Saturday, the next weather system will be taking shape off the
coast of southern California as a modest upper level jet
strengthens to the west of northern Baja. The jet should support
some strengthening of the weather system as it approaches our
region later on Saturday, but it will be temporary as once the
system moves onshore by Saturday night guidance shows it weakening
quite quickly. Southern California is likely to get some shower
activity on Saturday, but there is little chance any will survive
making it past the interior mountains. Moisture cross-sections
show a good deal of upper level moisture out ahead of the system
early on Saturday, but that moisture gets pushed eastward out of
our area as the system moves onshore later Saturday. Guidance
does show an increase in mid-level moisture along and ahead of an
advancing cold front Saturday evening and Saturday night, but
it`s marginal and contained only within a narrow 9-13K ft layer.
As usual for this time of year with these fast moving weather
systems, forecast soundings indicate a decent amount of dry air
within the boundary layer. Once the energy from the mid-level
shortwave moves through the northwestern 2/3rds of Arizona
Saturday night it should be enough for some higher terrain light
shower activity, but it remains quite doubtful it will impact the
lower deserts. NBM PoPs do suggest 20-25% PoPs over Phoenix and
25-40% PoPs over the higher terrain to the north, but that has
been dialed back to 10-15% and 15-30% in the latest forecast.

Saturday will also present more breezy to locally windy
conditions, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.
Advisory level winds will be possible for very localized areas
across southeast California while gusts across the rest of the
area should mostly stay below 30 mph. Temperatures will also begin
to cool off on Saturday, partially because of the mostly cloudy
skies, as highs are expected to reach the lower 80s across
southeast California to the mid 80s across south-central Arizona.
Once the weather system exits to the east by Sunday afternoon, the
cooler air mass behind the front should limit highs to mostly the
upper 70s.

The weather pattern is likely to repeat the same scenario next
week as quasi-zonal flow takes over early next week before another
weather system develops and eventually moves through our region
at some point mid to late next week. After the below normal
temperatures Sunday, readings should quickly climb back into the
normal range by Tuesday and either stay stable or rise a bit
further into the latter half of next week. Guidance is somewhat
uncertain on the timing of the system later next week as it may
get close to becoming partially cut off from the main flow. For
now, guidance is leaning toward no cut-off system and pushing it
through our region around next Wednesday or Thursday. If this
occurs, we should get a slight dip in temperatures (slightly below
normal) again before rising to above normal into next weekend.
Models do show some potential light QPF amounts during the middle
of next week with the passage of the weather system, but given
the time of year we are not putting much faith in those chances.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0500Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No significant weather concerns will exist through Thursday night
under occasional high cirrus decks. Confidence remains very good
that W/SW winds will persist longer into the overnight than usual
before finally shifting to a light easterly. Directions should shift
back to W/SW late Thursday morning with speeds somewhat weaker than
the past few days.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major weather issues will exist through Thursday night under
periods of high cirrus decks. Confidence remains very good that W/NW
winds will persist at KIPL with speeds weaker and gusts more limited
than the past couple days. Winds at KBLH should veer from SW to NW
overnight though may incur some variability through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near to slightly above normal temperatures and seasonably dry
conditions will prevail through Friday. Winds will be lighter than
the past few days, but some afternoon upslope breeziness should
result in occasional gusts to around 20 mph. Expect MinRHs both
today and Friday to be between 10-15%, while overnight recoveries
will only be poor to fair at 30-45% for most locations. A mostly
dry weather system is then expected to bring another round of
breezy to windy conditions Saturday potentially leading to
elevated fire weather conditions for some areas. Humidities will
improve over the weekend with MinRHs rising to 15-25%, but this
will be short-lived as they are forecast to fall back to between
10-15% early next week. Seasonably breezy afternoon winds are
forecast for early next week, but winds should fall short of
creating widespread elevated fire weather concerns.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM..Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

NWS PSR Office Area Forecast Discussion