Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171729
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on 
the remnants of Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic 
Ocean.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon)
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical 
Atlantic are associated with the remnants of Gordon. This 
disturbance is forecast to interact with a non-tropical low to its 
north while moving north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph during the 
next couple of days. Environmental conditions could become more 
conducive for redevelopment later this week, and a tropical 
depression or storm could form by this weekend while the system 
moves slowly northward over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Summary for Remnants of Gordon (AT2/AL072024)

...GORDON DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 17
 the center of Gordon was located near 19.5, -49.1
 with movement N at 5 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Remnants of Gordon Public Advisory Number 25

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024  

351 
WTNT32 KNHC 171458
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Remnants Of Gordon Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024
 
...GORDON DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 49.1W
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Gordon were located near 
latitude 19.5 North, longitude 49.1 West. The remnants are moving 
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). The remnants are forecast to 
move northward to north-northeastward at a similar forward speed for 
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane 
Center on this system. Additional information can be found in High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS 
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Remnants of Gordon Forecast Advisory Number 25

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 171457
TCMAT2
 
REMNANTS OF GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072024
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024
 
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  49.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  49.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  49.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N  49.1W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH 
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS 
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Remnants of Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 25

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024  

095 
WTNT42 KNHC 171500
TCDAT2
 
Remnants Of Gordon Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072024
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024
 
Gordon is no longer a tropical cyclone. The convective structure has 
degraded since the overnight hours, with only small bursts of 
convection occurring to the south and east of the estimated center 
position. More importantly, recent scatterometer data indicate the 
system does not possess a well-defined, trackable center, with an 
elongated structure more indicative of a trough of low pressure. 
Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on the remnants of 
Gordon. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on the 
scatterometer data, although this could be generous.

The remnants are expected to move northward to north-northeastward 
over open waters during the next few days while rotating around a 
non-tropical low currently positioned to its north. While the 
structure is unlikely to improve in the short term, there are 
indications in the global models that the remnants of Gordon could 
redevelop later this week once the system moves into a more moist 
environment and gains some distance from the nearby frontal low. NHC 
will continue to monitor the remnants of Gordon for signs of 
organization and the possibility of redevelopment later this week. 
Information on the potential for regeneration will be contained in 
the Tropical Weather Outlook.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header 
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/1500Z 19.5N  49.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS OF GORDON
 12H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Remnants of Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024                                              

530 
FONT12 KNHC 171458
PWSAT2
                                                                    
REMNANTS OF GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072024               
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF GORDON WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5     
NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS
...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                                                
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
 
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
 
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART

Remnants of Gordon Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2024 15:01:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2024 15:22:41 GMT