831
FXHW60 PHFO 031910
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
910 AM HST Tue Nov 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A breezy and stable trade wind flow will prevail through much of
the week as surface high pressure holds north of the state.
Pockets of moisture moving in the trades will focus rainfall over
windward and mauka areas with showers briefly passing over leeward
areas.

&&

.UPDATE...
The forecast remains on track for a breezy trade wind pattern
through much of the week. No updates this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM HST Tue Nov 3 2026
Breezy trade winds continue for most areas, as a surface high has
weakened slightly north of the area overnight. The Wind Advisory
has been cancelled as wind speeds have dropped just below advisory
levels. The soundings this morning show inversion heights
continuing to hover around 5,000 and 7,000 ft producing stable
conditions. Expect borderline advisory level, gusty winds to
develop downslope of terrain, particularly for some leeward
portions of Big Island and Maui later this afternoon and overnight
tonight due to a slight strengthening of the high pressure system
to the north and localized terrain enhancing effects. Will
continue to monitor this afternoon if a Wind Advisory is
warranted. Scattered, light showers can be seen on radar with
showers focusing mainly along windward and mauka areas, with a few
showers spilling over to leeward areas of the smaller islands.
The majority of the shower activity is expected for Kauai and Oahu
rest of the this morning. Shower activity is then expected to
pick up across the state tonight into early morning Wednesday as a
band of moisture moves through.

The stable breezy trade wind flow will persist through at least
Friday. Surface high pressure will hold north of the islands and
maintain breezy and gusty trade winds. Pockets of moisture within
the trades will focus showers over windward areas, and stability
from ridging aloft will keep shower intensity moderate.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a broad area of low pressure,
currently well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Guidance thus
far indicates minor, indirect effects such as trade wind speeds
increasing as this system passes south Friday into the weekend and
an increase in trade wind showers for windward Big Island. This
area of low pressure is expected to pass south of the islands
this weekend, but will need to be closely monitored as it
continues to develop. Trade winds could ease slightly Sunday as a
weakening front approaches. This feature may increase shower
activity for Kauai Sunday or next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
A ridge to the north will continue the moderate to locally strong
trade winds across the region. Clouds and showers will be focused
over the windward slopes, but the strong winds could carry some
showers to leeward areas at times. Generally VFR conditions are
expected with only brief MVFR possible under any localized
moderate shower.

AIRMET Sierra has been cancelled for the Big Island as conditions
have improved.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect due to the mechanical turbulence to
the lee of the mountains below 8000 feet. Anticipate this AIRMET
to remain posted beyond 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM HST Tue Nov 3 2026
Dominant high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds through most of the week and into the weekend
with slight day to day fluctuations. The Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) has been extended through Wednesday for the combination of
winds for most waters and seas remaining near 10 feet today for
areas exposed to a fading north-northwest swell. Continued strong
trade winds will likely necessitate further extensions of the SCA.
On Thursday, a broad area of low pressure with high potential to
develop into a tropical cyclone according to National Hurricane
Center forecasts will approach and pass south of the islands,
potentially enhancing winds over southeast waters. Additionally,
another moderate northwest swell is likely to push seas in exposed
waters back above 10 ft through Friday. The threat of small craft
winds and seas may extend into the weekend.

Surf along north- and west-facing shores will continue to decrease
today as a moderate, north-northwest swell fades and shifts more
northerly. A small, long period north-northwest swell arrives tonight
and peaks late Wednesday, but this will not prevent north and west
shore surf from dropping to small levels by Wednesday. Another
moderate, long-period northwest swell arrives Wednesday night and
will likely push north and west shore surf back to advisory levels
Thursday into Friday. A medium-period swell fills in on Saturday,
likely prolonging moderate to large surf action into the weekend.

The current small, medium-period south swell will continue to fade
today. South shore surf will be small to tiny through much of the
week with little southerly background energy reaching the islands.
East-facing shores will see continued moderate trade wind swell as
strong northeast winds remain. Surf along east-facing shores will
stay big and choppy through much of the week with the trades.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 AM HST Tue Nov 3 2026Breezy winds during the next
several days will produce moderate fire weather conditions since
recent rainfall has likely limited the widespread availability of
receptive fuels. The temperature inversion near Big Island will
range from 6000 to 8000 ft over the next few days.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward
Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu
Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Michael
MARINE...Quesada
FIRE WEATHER...Almanza

NWS HFO Office Area Forecast Discussion